Update 4th June 2019
China 'seriously considering' restricting rare earth exports to US ...
https://www.rt.com › Business news
28 May 2019 - Beijing is considering a ban on exports of rare earth metals to the US, editor-in-
"Beijing is considering a ban on exports of rare earth metals to the US, editor-in-chief of Chinese state-linked outlet Global Times has tweeted, warning it may not be the last retaliatory move by China as the trade war escalates.
Reports that China may resort to the embargo have been circulating for weeks. If implemented, the move could be really harmful to Washington as there are almost no alternative sources for the elements that are used in a wide range of industries from high-tech to the military.
“Based on what I know, China is seriously considering restricting rare earth exports to the US. China may also take other countermeasures in the future,” Hu Xijin tweeted on Tuesday."
Update 20 May 2019.
Trump bans Huawei. How will Huawei respond?
INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER: "Google has
suspended Huawei's Android license
after the Trump administration blacklisted the Chinese phone maker over
security concerns. The move will prevent
Huawei devices from receiving key software and security updates, as well as
potentially impact their ability to access popular Google apps like Maps and
YouTube.
Huawei is one
of a number of phone manufacturers who use the Google-developed Android
operating systems on its phones and tablets
Existing
customers will be able to update their phones and apps, but will not be able to
update to a newer version of the Android operating system if one becomes
available. That could leave the company's phones without key security and
feature updates.
Android said
it had taken steps to “comply with the recent US government actions”.
This is another attack in Trump's commercial war on China - not a battle between high-tech companies. The businesses will have to do what their governments tell them to do. How will it play out?
Who /what is Huawei?
So, with a home market of 1.3 billion souls, government support and global sales of $108 B, Huawei is not going to lie down and quietly die. Blocked from Android (and I assume other US operating-systems) they will issue their own rival to Android in 2019 - probably updating and improving on it, and driving down the price of their devices. However much IT-Expert-Donald desires and commands it, the world cannot sabotage its entire telecoms infrastructure by removing Huawei hardware. For example, Britain's BT and much of Europe have been installing Huawei infrastructure kit for more than 20 years. It is very competitive on price and quality.
No other nations are planning to join Donald's courageous campaign to Make America Great Again by simply banning competition. The world remembers the 1960-1990 USA car-industry's refusal to compete with Japanese and European vehicles, and to persist with their ridiculous 8 mpg, bouncing, chrome-decorated, planet-killing tin-cans; until Detroit was reduced to The Rust Belt. Then they re-designed and tried to compete in the modern age.
This time, Donald-the-Fearless-Warrior, has really lit the fuse that might destroy the USA's well-deserved and well-earned lead and dominance in computers and advanced telecoms, including their miraculous cell-phones. Is it farewell to Silicon Valley and the Biggest High-Tech Corporations ever?
PS - When or if Donald bullies China into honoring and paying for US patent rights, (was none of it invented abroad? The WWW for example.) - will he in turn pay the 200 years of back-Royalties on all the silk-industry processes that the West stole from China? Trade wars are very complicated Mr President.
******
23 March 2018
 |
| A CNN CHART - 2017 |
WIN-WIN FOR GOVERNMENTS.
UPDATE 6 April 2018: TRUMP WANTS WAR. THE LITTLE PEOPLE WILL PAY THE PRICE AS TARIFFS HIT JOBS.
...However, if China matched the White House’s threats to subject as much as $150bn in Chinese goods to tariffs, it would more than cover total US exports to the country.
The US exported around $130bn to China last year, mainly in agricultural products like soybeans and grains, as well as vehicles, aircraft, and pharmaceuticals — items included in China’s list released on Wednesday. Trump’s threatened increase of tariffs on Chinese goods would affect only about 30% of what China exports to the US.
Trump’s move comes one day after China issued a $50bn list of US goods including soybeans and small aircraft for possible tariff hikes. That itself was 11 hours after the White House announced a list of 1,333 Chinese imports, also worth about $50bn, for punitive tariffs of 25%.
“Hopefully the president is just blowing off steam again but, if he’s even half-serious, this is nuts,” said the senator Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, who has been critical of the president’s posture on trade. “China is guilty of many things, but the president has no actual plan to win right now. He’s threatening to light American agriculture on fire.” GUARDIAN NEWS
****
31st March 2018
Trump's threats to impose import tariffs and "Make America Great Again" is pertinent to the US economy and even more so for the post-Brexit UK economy if forced onto WTO tariffs. From any government's point of view, Import Tariff's are a win-win tool. They reduce or stop imports, and so improve the balance of trade. The Treasury collects the tariffs from industry, so it is a "hidden" tax that does not alienate voters but improves government debt. The tariff is passed on to ordinary consumers through a myriad of goods & services price rises, so it acts as a brake on economic activity, just like an interest rate rise - but government isn't blamed for the inevitable inflation. In the medium term, of course, the extra costs, of higher import prices, reduce jobs - but that is a can that is kicked down the road. If a trade-war results, the consequences are catastrophic for everyone.
SOME STEEL STATS
US imports $29 B of steel.
1.96% is from China = $568M
25% import Tariff = $142M
1st year of Tariff, assume supply chains don’t change – Import tax charged in full.
So, American manufacturers foot the bill of $142M.
US manufacturers will pass on the cost to consumers – so shop prices will rise by $142M.
If that depresses average pay (of $25K per annum), it equals 5,680 potential job losses (or equivalent wage reduction)
BUT, US Customs & Excise collect the $142M for the Treasury, which could be invested in the Rust Belts.
Year Two – It is likely that a competitor to China will undercut the now higher 125% price – say, replacing half the steel from China:
So take 50% of the above numbers for the near future.
Imported steel prices in the US are likely to return to pre-tariff levels (i.e. 100% of today’s price).
IF – China retaliates in kind, with $142M of tariffs on US goods and services – that is likely to create reduced sales equivalent to $142M
Which is another longer term 5,680 US jobs lost in the general economy. The Chinese Treasury gets $142M.
America risks losing 11,360 jobs if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imported Chinese steel.
It won't affect Trump's $200 million a year income; he has gone to play golf at Mar-a-Lago, demonstrating yet again that "Only little people pay tax."
This illustrates the tit-for-tat trade war that economists fear.
President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on imported steel. Here's a look at the numbers behind the industry.
$29 billion
The US is the world's top steel importer. The value of steel shipped into the US was just over $29 billion in 2017.
Nearly 17% of steel imported into the US comes from Canada, according to S&P Global Platts. South Korea, Mexico, Brazil and China are also major exporters to the US.
The new tariff could put those countries squarely in the firing line.
Ben May, a director at Oxford Economics, said that 88% of Canadian steel exports went to the US in 2016. The same is true for nearly three-quarters of Mexican steel.
China would be less affected because its trade with the US is already restricted by American import controls and duties.
1.7 billion metric tonnes
When it comes to steel production, one country is miles ahead of the pack: China.
It accounted for a whopping 49% of the 1.7 billion metric tonnes of steel produced globally last year, according to industry group Worldsteel.
The European Union, Japan, India and the United States round out the top five producers.
What's all that steel used for?
Half of global steel production goes into buildings and infrastructure, which includes products such as beams and pipelines.
Some 16% of steel is used in mechanical equipment. Cars, shipping and rail transport also receive hefty allotments.
OPINION FROM A TRUMP SUPPORTER:
First one must understand why DONALD TRUMP issued the statement that there would be a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminium, and the timing of that announcement.
It was timed just before an election in South Western Pennsylvania and was almost certainly designed to assist the republican vote in what is steel country.
Now the election is over so DT can dismantle many of the apparent provisions until he is left with a small number of targeted tariffs that he wanted all along.
This is an ongoing process so it is too early to start talking about consequences because by tomorrow or the week after they could easily be proved wrong.
Here (below) is an article about the position today, and this could change within a few days.
Take into account that people's behavior changes when the external circumstances change, in two ways:
1. the US steel workers see greater employment as does the US coal workers supplying the steel producers.
2. The consumer, if faced with higher prices now has such a wide choice that it is easier than ever to change buying behavior.
In fact less and less steel is being used to build cars as light-weight materials are being used instead to provide lower weight, increased stiffness and better fuel consumption. As more electric cars are made there will be less and less demand for iron and steel to build big internal combustion engines.
*****
EU and six other countries exempted from US metals tariffs
- 23 March 2018
Trade
Representative Robert Lighthizer told a Senate panel that Mr Trump had decided
to "pause" the import duties while further discussions took place.
The
tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium are due to come into effect on
Friday.
The
EU had argued it should be exempt.
Aside
from the EU Mr Lighthizer said Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and
South Korea would be exempted.
"The
idea that the president has is that, based on a certain set of criteria, that
some countries should get out," he told the Senate committee hearing.
"There
are countries with whom we're negotiating and the question becomes the obvious
one that you think, as a matter of business, how does this work?
"So
what he has decided to do is to pause the imposition of the tariffs with
respect to those countries."
Earlier
this month, the EU's trade commissioner said the bloc would "stand up to
the bullies" over protectionism.
Cecilia
Malmström said protectionism was being "used as a weapon to threaten and
intimidate us".
Analysis: By Kim Gittleson, New York business correspondent
In
announcing exemptions for the European Union, Argentina, Australia, South Korea
and Brazil, the Trump administration has effectively narrowed the countries that
it is targeting with its protectionist trade policies. It also blunts the
potential fallout to the US economy from the implementation of these trade
barriers.
It
pays to do some maths:
US
imports of steel last year totalled $33bn.
But
if the countries granted exemptions are removed from that total - including
Canada and Mexico, whose exemptions had already been announced - then less than
a third of US steel imports would be subject to tariffs.
This
significantly lowers the potential economic impact of the tariffs - as well as
the potential help it might provide to domestic steel industry here in the
United States.
And
it suggests that in steel tariffs, as with many policy actions the White House
has taken, the reality of what is being done falls slightly short of the
rhetoric.
Gareth
Stace, a director with the trade association UK Steel, said the temporary
exemption from tariffs would be "greeted with an enormous sigh of
relief" by the UK's steel sector.
"It
now provides us with the breathing room to find a more permanent solution.
"The
alternative would be a severe curtailment of our ability to export to the US.
With some 350,000 tonnes of steel sold to the US last year, 7% of our total
exports, it is clear any tariffs would ultimately hit the sector hard," he
added.
A
UK government spokesperson said they welcomed the "signals" that the
US government was considering EU wide exemptions for limited time period.
"The
government will continue to work closely with the EU and the US Administration
for a full exemption, and to ensure UK companies are not negatively impacted,
either directly or indirectly.
"We
remain concerned about the impact of these tariffs on global trade and will
continue to work with the EU on a multilateral solution to the global problem
of overcapacity, as well as to manage the impact on domestic markets."
