Tuesday 22 May 2018

CLEAN AIR ACT - 1956-2018 - GOVE STILL DISMISSES "EXPERTS"


The environment secretary must not use simplistic policies to avoid the complex and difficult trade-offs called for in dealing with the air quality crisis that is ending thousands of lives prematurely.  (BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAINS)

Chapter 5 - Smog and Vertigo


Stephen Mosley - School of Cultural Studies & Humanities, Leeds Metropolitan University.
In 1950, the sight of sulphurous black smoke billowing out from industrial and domestic chimneys still dominated the skylines around Greater Manchester. Coal smoke was responsible for blackening urban architecture, blocking out sunlight, destroying vegetation and, not least of all, damaging people’s health. It was closely associated with high levels of mortality from bronchitis and other respiratory diseases, particularly during the cold winter months when demand for domestic coal fires was at its peak. Manchester’s ugliness, as J.B. Priestley put it, was ‘so complete’ that it was ‘almost exhilarating.’

The impenetrable winter smog that fell in 1950 in the dark early evenings was very exciting.


We had all managed to get home safely through the streets without being able to see our hands held up in front of our faces. Long woolly, double knitted scarves, in red and white bands, were inverted to make head hugging balaclavas at one end, with the other end wrapped several times and tightly around mouths and noses for warmth and air filters, the end being tucked into the neck of a tightly buttoned gabardine.  Sound was deadened before it could travel even a few feet. Lampposts served as reliable landmarks in an otherwise featureless dark sea of cloud and chemicals.  We could taste the bitter soot, from countless coal burning chimneys, in the wet cold soup as it clung to our clothes, making everything filthy and clammy to touch. The mile or so walk from school in that impenetrable darkness was hugely exciting - hand over hand along suddenly unfamiliar garden walls - navigating across streets that mysteriously seemed ten times wider than in daylight, with no landmarks nor even sounds to guide us to the safety of a pavement.

COULD'NT SEE YOUR HAND BEFORE YOUR FACE
The school had disgorged a hundred and fifty or so, five to eleven-year-old children alone into that dark oily smog to make their way home as best they could. They were wrapped mostly in dark navy gabardines, swathed in those popular double wool scarves, most with blue hands and fingers but some boasting woollen or even fabulous fur backed gloves, with one or two deeply envied boys sporting leather gauntlets. Most wore black lace-up shoes, some crept stealthily like Red-Indians in white or black summer cotton plimsoles or “pumps”; or swaggered along in swashbuckling wellies with the white cotton interiors folded down to the ankles. At the school gates they dispersed into the gloom to go their separate ways, disappearing in seconds from each other and from the world. Little groups trailed together along silent and cloaked suburban roads, guessing at the direction. At each junction the groups divided and smaller parties groped along walls and pavements towards, they hoped, their homes, reassured briefly by a sudden lamppost looming by a recognisable wall before blindly creeping another fifty yards to where they hoped the next light might be found. The lampposts always surprised the fumbling travellers, leaping into view just six inches from their frozen noses, casting a feeble yellow or blue glow on the slowly stirring smog, but failing to illuminate the ground. Our breathing made the improvised woollen masks wet, but it was more comfortable to keep the warm poultice of the scarf hugging the mouth and nose than to pull it aside and suck in the cold, cloying blanket of filthy fog. No cars or buses threatened the slow crossing of streets. No anxious parents appeared out of the blackness, waving torches and proffering comfort and guidance. No one came and no one was expected. The children managed the journey alone and hugely enjoyed their small adventure.            

I made it back to Birch House and crept around the garden in that pitch darkness for a time, enjoying the privacy and silence, before hunger and cold drove me into that brooding house.

At that time of year, it was dark by four-thirty and in that weather all honest people were in their homes by six. Even Father had made it back from Manchester, full of brief bluff comments, thrown out to his personal, private watchers in the high dark corners of the kitchen, which left no doubt as to his manly skills and courage, a foretaste of his amazing rallying and racing skills yet to come, in cleaving his way instinctively through the smog while lesser mortals abandoned their cars and fumbled their way along the miles of impossibly dark, muffled pavements.   

The smog even seeped into the kitchen, making the light dimmer and casting an imperceptible shadow over the table.  The coal fire warmed the room, adding its slow exhaust of smoke, carbon, tar and sulphur to the overburdened atmosphere, burning slowly and dully in the grate as the smog pressed down the chimney and choked the draught that the fire needed. By now Stephanie had been born, though she was too young to be up at the table for tea.  The rest of us sat at the kitchen table, including Father, still happy with memories of our adventures outside, and we waited in unaccustomed quiet while Mother heaved and juggled with pans full of potatoes and piles of plates in the cold condensation of the scullery. The meal was sausages, fried eggs and mashed potatoes; a firm favourite, which ensured that not a scrap was left.




*******

CLEAN AIR AND ROAD TRANSPORT - 

THE PAST 

From The Economics of UK Transport 

February 2017 - Noel Hodson

Since 1950 the UK population has almost doubled; road vehicles have multiplied by ten from about 3 million to 30 million; the roads have not expanded at the same rates. In the 1950s, we played football in the street by my home, pausing occasionally to let a vehicle go by. That leafy street today carries a vehicle every 15 seconds, from 6 am till 10 pm. That is 240 vehicle movements per hour for 16 hours, 3,840 vehicle-movements a day.

In the 1950’s on workdays, we suffered the notorious morning and evening commute. Town centres were gridlocked from 7.30am to 9.30am and for homecoming, from 5pm to 6.30pm. Traffic queued in long, slow lines, belching exhaust fumes.
On bad-weather days, when I did not cycle the 7 miles to school (and later 12 miles to work), I used buses which took twice the time as cycling. The buses queued in exhaust corridors, with every roadside house, office and factory burning coal or coke, poisoning the air – and creating the infamous yellow, oily smog; when literally “You couldn’t see your hand in front of your face”.
Inside the 1950’s buses, most passengers smoked, puffing out yellow-brown condensation that ran down the windows and dripped inside the tin roof.
Walking along those smog-laden streets could be quicker than waiting for the traffic jams to clear; but the smog-death toll of pedestrians from asthma and heart-attacks was alarmingly high.
It was found that lead, then added to all petrol and diesel to prevent engine “knocking”, was highly toxic. DuPont had developed the lead additive:
1923 Sept - workers started dying in the DuPont TEL works… “sickening deaths and illnesses of hundreds of TEL workers… Gripped by violent bursts of insanity, the afflicted would imagine they were being persecuted by butterflies and other winged insects before expiring, their bodies having turned black and blue.” (Kitman 2000a)
These deadly air conditions on our streets were alleviated, first by the 1956 Clean Air Act, requiring “smokeless” fuels for buildings. Next, vehicle makers were obliged to improve engines and miles per gallon, creating less exhaust fumes. Eventually, the USA banned lead in petrol:
1970 – US Environmental Protection Agency created. Car manufacturers ordered to begin building engines to run on unleaded gasoline by 1975. Ethyl Corp. unsuccessfully opposes phase-out of leaded gasoline in courts.
And, after another 30 years of a bitter campaign in the UK, led against Big-Oil by engineer and academic, Dr John Beishon of the Open University, leaded petrol was banned in January 2000; 77 years after it was identified as an untreatable poison.
Improvements were made to traffic flow systems. Bypasses and motorways were built, the M1 opened in 1959.
Medic Sir Richard Doll, Oxford, after 25 years of academic research, successfully argued against Big-Tobacco that smoking causes cancer. In 1984 smoking was banned on London buses. Later, buses acquired air conditioning.
POISONOUS BUSES: Recent studies of commuters 2016-17 find that bus passengers receive the largest amounts of NO2 and particulates. Car passenger with filtered air-con are most protected.
With the advent of Telework or Telecommuting, pioneered by Californian Jack Nilles and, in the UK by BT, “Take the Work to the people Not the people to the Work” and the introduction of Flexitime, some reduction in the numbers commuting was made from 1995 onwards. Today about 15% of workdays are at home – reducing the commute and helping to free the roads, buses and trains.
In 1980, as the first Star Wars film was shot, our team built one of the first hybrid-
electric-petrol prototype cars, Microdot, by Aston Martin designer William Towns, capable of 100 mpg (and 100 mph); it was 30 years ahead of its time but, unfortunately for UK industry, the car, its financing, and the UK’s lead, was dismissed by a cranky, government senior scientist as “breaching the 2nd law of thermodynamics”.
Electric vehicles are the near future of transport. In January 2017, Dutch railways Nederlandse Spoorwegen, announced that all their trains, 5,500 trips a day for 600,000 passengers, are now powered by electricity produced only by wind-turbines


Electric road vehicles will replace the internal combustion engine – and electric pipeline-cargo-capsules will replace half the freight vehicles.
The UK could lead this change.

Extract from - Monday, 15 May 2017


THE NEW AGE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Friday 18 May 2018

THE NEW AGE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

 FAREWELL TO ICEs 
HELLO TO EVs

From Internal Combustion Engines, back to Electric Vehicles.

Gas or Battery? Do TESLAs burst into flames? Does cold cripple EVs? Will Elon Musk succeed? 

A row between two elderly gentlemen. John is Pro-Trump & Brexit. Noel is Anti-Trump & Brexit.

Read this article from the bottom up to the top. John started by claiming petrol & diesel vehicles are superior to electric vehicles. Noel says the future is electric. John's hero Donald Trump is legislating for coal-driven-cars. Noel thinks Donald is demented.

MAY 2018 - ROYAL WEDDING ELECTRIC-E-TYPE















The weight facts; without John's BIG-OIL Trumpian spin and misdirection:

Ford Mondeo Sedan
Mid-size car
Range1,104 km total
RRPFrom £26,180
Cargo volume383 L
Dimensions4,871 mm L x 1,852 mm W x 1,482 mm H
Kerb weight1,579 kg
Battery1.4 kWh lithium-ion


Tesla Model 3
Length
184.8 in (4,690 mm)
Width
76.1 in (1,930 mm)
Height
56.8 in (1,440 mm)
Curb weight
Standard: 3,549 lb (1,610 kg) Long-range: 3,814 lb (1,730 kg)
18 more rows

Tesla Model 3 - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3




1958 - 2.4 JAGUAR - 130 MPH - 25 MPG

On 18 May 2018, Noel wrote:

John – I think you have been taking lessons in The Donald Trump School of Spinduggery.  Did you know he had the largest fan-crowd ever at his inauguration ceremony.  Fact! – Get real! - Noel

Frequency of vehicle fires

Fire incidents in highway capable vehicles occur relatively frequently. A study of U.S. fires from 2003-2007 finds that fire departments respond to an average of 287,000 vehicle fires per year, or 30 vehicle fires per hour, and that vehicles were involved in 17% of all reported U.S. fires.[7] The study also finds that roughly 90 highway vehicle fires and 0.15 highway vehicle fire deaths were reported per billion miles driven.

Executive Summary – Buses on fire

During the five-year period of 1999-2003, U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 2,210 bus or school bus fires per year. These fires caused an estimated annual average of three civilian deaths, 30 civilian injuries, and $24.2 million in direct property damage per year. In 1999-2003, bus or school bus fires accounted for 1% of the total reported vehicle fires, 1% of the vehicle fire deaths, 2% of the vehicle fire injuries, and 2% of the vehicle fire property damage. On average, six bus or school bus fires were reported every day.

In the past two months, three Tesla Motors Model S electric cars have caught fire after their lithium-ion battery packs were damaged. Last week the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it would investigate whether Tesla’s Model S needs to be modified to prevent further fires.
Burn out: The front end of a Tesla Model S was consumed in flames after its battery was damaged.
In two cases, the cars ran over large metal objects at highway speed; the third car hit a concrete wall. No one was hurt: 
Noel


John writes:

The point has been in the media quite a bit the last year
or so that in an accident where the battery pack is damaged they do burst into flames. 

The worst point is that this is very difficult nay impossible to extinguish and therefore left to burn itself out. 
At least with petrol it can be put out and diesel is not very flammable. To the extent that if one throws a lit match into a bowl of diesel it goes out. Petrol is more flammable and would catch fire.

It is one thing disbelieving what I have said but all the points I have made are supported by facts. 
John


18 May 2018, Noel wrote:
MacKay concluded “other lithium-free battery technologies such as zinc-air re-chargeables are being developed [www.revolttechnology.com]. I think the electric car is a goer! “

In the same period, how many ICE cars and vans burst into flames?

How many tyres have to wear 1/4 inch to release particulates equivalent to one gallon of petrol or diesel?

Cold weather – Now whose being negative? The advances in battery power are exponential. Even Murdoch’s SUN says so:

SUN SAYS “But Tesla has the answer - heating up your battery via the app before you set off while it's still plugged in, according to reports by Electrek.
A warm battery will have a much better chance of returning the full range on offer.
The electric car pioneers recently started showing how the cold is affecting your range.




And now with an update supplied by wifi, it'll fix it with a battery pre-heating feature on the app.
Tesla previously offered a cabin heating option and many other electric cars have this system, too.
And while Nissan offered the battery pre-heating function on its old Leaf with the "Cold Weather Package", there's no option to spec this on the new model.
Petrol and diesels aren't immune to cold weather hurting efficiency it's just you've normally got more in reserve than the smaller ranges of electric vehicles.”

Noel writes:
John – have you ever heard of frozen fuel pipes?

7 Jan 2014 - The equipment used to pump jet fuel can freeze, so refueling planes gets tricky. That slowed American Airlines operations at O'Hare Monday

23 Jan 2018 - A frozen fuel line is one of winter's worst driving frustrations — but fortunately, it's possible to prepare your car so that you don't have to be

On all comparisons – EVs are better. Farewell to the internal-combustion engine. But it will be a slow death. - Noel

1.      
26 Feb 2018 - German cities can ban the most heavily polluting diesel cars from their streets ... France and Britain will ban new petrol and diesel cars by 2040.
www.alphr.com › Environment
1.      
Rome is banning diesel cars in its city centre by 2024 if its mayor's plans come to pass. Virginia Raggi announced the decision via Facebook, stating that "if we ...
1.      
The news that Oxford plans to ban all petrol and diesel vehicles from the city centre by the end of the decade is just the latest example of the UK authorities

From: John    17 May 2018 18:11
Subject: Re: New report suggests broad adoption of electric vehicles may actually increase air pollution | Watts Up With That?

Noel

According to his (MacKay’s) own analysis an EV is no better than a good IC car. 100g co2 per km. 

He says LI batteries are safe in an accident. This is rubbish. There have been several high profile
cases of Tesla battery packs catching fire in an accident and having to be left to burn themselves
out as the emergency fire service could not put them out. Very severe fires. 

He fails to tell you that the range of an EV is substantially reduced in cold weather. Some 
Tesla owners report range reduced to 90 miles in cold weather. That is from circa 250 quoted.

And he does not address properly the issue of having to scrap an EV at 10 years old because
it needs new batteries. 

The embedded emissions in a new car are very considerable. 
John


17 May 2018, Noel wrote:
John – As you say “it is complicated”. But EVs are many times less polluting than ICE’s.

This is part of the issues - from David MacKay:

Some questions about electric vehicles
You’ve shown that electric cars are more energy-efficient than fossil cars.
But are they better if our objective is to reduce CO2 emissions, and the
electricity is still generated by fossil power-stations?
This is quite an easy calculation to do. Assume the electric vehicle’s
energy cost is 20 kWh(e) per 100 km. (I think 15 kWh(e) per 100 km is perfectly
possible, but let’s play sceptical in this calculation.) If grid electricity
has a carbon footprint of 500 g per kWh(e) then the effective emissions of
this vehicle are 100 gCO2 per km, which is as good as the best fossil cars
(figure 20.9). So I conclude that switching to electric cars is already a good
idea, even before we green our electricity supply.
Electric cars, like fossil cars, have costs of both manufacture and use.
Electric cars may cost less to use, but if the batteries don’t last very long,
shouldn’t you pay more attention to the manufacturing cost?
Yes, that’s a good point. My transport diagram shows only the use cost.
If electric cars require new batteries every few years, my numbers may be
underestimates. The batteries in a Prius are expected to last just 10 years,
and a new set would cost £3500. Will anyone want to own a 10-year old
Prius and pay that cost? It could be predicted that most Priuses will be
junked at age 10 years. This is certainly a concern for all electric vehicles
that have batteries. I guess I’m optimistic that, as we switch to electric
vehicles, battery technology is going to improve.
I live in a hot place. How could I drive an electric car? I demand powerhungry
air-conditioning!
There’s an elegant fix for this demand: fit 4m2 of photovoltaic panels
in the upward-facing surfaces of the electric car. If the air-conditioning is
needed, the sun must surely be shining. 20%-efficient panels will generate
up to 800W, which is enough to power a car’s air-conditioning. The
panels might even make a useful contribution to charging the car when
it’s parked, too. Solar-powered vehicle cooling was included in a Mazda
in 1993; the solar cells were embedded in the glass sunroof.
Copyright David JC MacKay 2009. This electronic copy is provided, free, for personal use only. See www.withouthotair.com.
132 Sustainable Energy – without the hot air
I live in a cold place. How could I drive an electric car? I demand powerhungry
heating!
The motor of an electric vehicle, when it’s running, will on average use
something like 10 kW, with an efficiency of 90–95%. Some of the lost power,
the other 5–10%, will be dissipated as heat in the motor. Perhaps electric
cars that are going to be used in cold places can be carefully designed so
that this motor-generated heat, which might amount to 250 or 500W, can
be piped from the motor into the car. That much power would provide
some significant windscreen demisting or body-warming.
Are lithium-ion batteries safe in an accident?
Some lithium-ion batteries are unsafe when short-circuited or overheated,
but the battery industry is now producing safer batteries such as
lithium phosphate. There’s a fun safety video at www.valence.com.
Is there enough lithium to make all the batteries for a huge fleet of electric
cars?
World lithium reserves are estimated to be 9.5 million tons in ore deposits
(p175). A lithium-ion battery is 3% lithium. If we assume each
vehicle has a 200 kg battery, then we need 6 kg of lithium per vehicle. So
the estimated reserves in ore deposits are enough to make the batteries for
1.6 billion vehicles. That’s more than the number of cars in the world today
(roughly 1 billion) – but not much more, so the amount of lithium may be
a concern, especially when we take into account the competing ambitions
of the nuclear fusion posse (Chapter 24) to guzzle lithium in their reactors.
There’s many thousands times more lithium in sea water, so perhaps the
oceans will provide a useful backup. However, lithium specialist R. Keith
Evans says “concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric
vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded.” And
anyway, other lithium-free battery technologies such as zinc-air rechargeables
are being developed [www.revolttechnology.com]. I think the electric
car is a goer!

So says a Professor of Energy

Noel

From: John   17 May 2018
Subject: Electric vehicles may actually increase air pollution | Watts Up With That?

Thing is, consult recent research and published material. 

The whole EV versus IC engine thing is very much more complex than usually presented. 
EV cars are 25% heavier than IC engined cars. That is well known. 

Even a tank of petrol or diesel weighs less than one male passenger. 

It is true about the emissions from brakes and tyres being significant. 

And it is true about EVs producing more of them. 

The battery pack in a Tesla model S P85 or P100 weighs from 540 to 560 kg. More than
half a ton. 

80 litres of petrol weighs 58kg.  And by definition tanks are full only for a short time. 

As said earlier, you will find that EV cars are typically 25% heavier than IC cars. 

Noel it’s just much more complex. 

John


17 May 2018, Noel wrote:
John – WEIGHT - have you included full tanks of fuel? Every travelling EC will simply replace an ICE. This tyre wear must be fearsome to outweigh saving millions of tonnes of exhaust fumes. It makes no sense. - Noel

From: John    Sent: 17 May 2018
Subject: Watts Up With That?

Yes they do. EV cars are heavier, typically 25% heavier and the particles from the tyres and brakes are small and in the size range that are ingested by humans.
McKay may be clever but he did not see into the future and he did not know about Adblue and ACCT, he did not know how clean IC engines could become.
The point is that these issues are never as simple as they are usually presented, they are far more complex.
 John


From: Noel  Sent: 17 May 2018
To: John
 
Isaac Newton’s gravity is 350 years old. Still valid science. MacKay was world renowned.

Are you saying that EV tyres wear more than ICE tyres? On what evidence? So much more as to outdo the zero emissions?

From: John Sent: 16 May 2018
 
Noel. 

The book is more than 10 years out of date. 

It does not reflect the position today. 

Please reread my email. The information in it
is current. As of this week this year. 

And do please address the non-power unit
emissions which are worse for electric cars. 

John

16 May 2018, Noel wrote:
No street level pollution. Breathe easy. Banish asthma.

“The well-to-wheel environmental impact of EVs and PHEVs is largely determined by the type of electricity production used to charge the batteries. If electricity is produced from lignite or coal, well-to-wheel CO2 emissions are typically higher than or equal to the emissions of a comparable ICE car. When the electricity comes from gas-fired power plants, emissions are significantly lower. Electricity from renewable sources, such as wind, solar or hydro energy, would result in zero CO2 emissions per kilometre.”

One of the most authoritative studies is Prof. MacKay’s Energy Without the hot air. And it is free on-line – And it isn’t a closet BIG-OIL old vehicles “study”. You would enjoy it.
Sustainable Energy - without the hot air. Contents

From: John Sent: 16 May 2018
To: Noel

Noel
Have you carefully considered the true facts and the science behind these claims.
It is a scientific true fact that today's new diesel engines, with the advent of Adblue, are very clean.
Add to this the breakthrough made at Loughborough Univeristy to reduce NOX emissions by 99%, such technology able to be in vehicles in 2 to 3 years, and the clean diesel with Adblue today is so clean with ACCT tomorrow that the NOX may not be measurable.
Add to that the fact that a large part of a vehicle's particulate emissions are from the tyres and brakes and you see that this persists regardless of power source. In fact electric vehicles are worse than IC engined vehicles here because they are heavier, around 25% heavier, and this corresponds to 25% more non power unit pariculates in the size range that are ingested by humans. The Guardian ran an article on this.
 So the whole thing is much more complex than saying get rid of internal combustion engined vehicles and all go elctric. It is just not as simple as that.
Governments love simple slogans but as usual the truth is far more complex.
 And a tirade is the least scientific way to address these issues.
 John



From: Noel Sent: 16 May 2018

John - Utter rubbish from yet another far-right, low-brow, bunch of luddites. How much is big-oil and old-engines paying this idiot? Why do you read this crap? - Noel

"Sound too good to be true? That's because it is, according to a new report published by the Manhattan Institute. Dr. Jonathan Lesser, the author of "Short Circuit: The High Cost of Electric Vehicles," argues that critics of the internal combustion engine fail to consider just how clean and efficient new cars are."

Funding sources. Foundations which have contributed over $1 million to the Manhattan Institute include the John M. Olin Foundation, Bradley Foundation, Sarah Scaife Foundation, Searle Freedom Trust, Smith Richardson Foundation, William E. Simon Foundation, the Claude Lambe Foundation, the Gilder Foundation, the Curry Foundation, and the Jaquelin Hume Foundation.

In 2013, hedge fund managers Cliff Asness, Henry Kravis and Thomas McWilliams all cut ties with the Manhattan Institute due to the group's support of the abolition of defined benefit public pensions

Noel


From: John Sent: 15 May 2018

Governments always get it wrong and here is the latest one.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/14/n
From WORLD SCIENTIFIC and the “let’s dumb it down so these stupid deniers can understand” it department comes this press release that seems pretty desperate. At $150 a copy, and u…

new-report-suggests-broad-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-may-actually-increase-air-pollition/
John


ELON MUSK'S ELECTRIC INVESTMENT - TESLA, BUY HOLD OR SELL?