Tuesday, 20 March 2018

KILLER-ROBOT CARS & BOEING 737 MAX CRASHES.


10TH MARCH 2019 - TRUST ME WITH YOUR LIFE - I'M A CARING, SHARING ROBOT! A.I.  IS NOT READY TO DRIVE CARS.

A VEHICLE is driving slowly on the top floor of a multistorey car park. Footage from an on-board camera shows what the artificial intelligence system controlling it can see: ranks of cars to the left, and is that a person off to the right? Straight ahead there is something else. To any human observer, it is obviously a stop sign. But the AI can’t seem to make sense of it and keeps on driving.
YOUR CAR THINKS ONE OF THESE IS A POWER DRILL 
This was only a stunt. Researchers had deliberately stuck pieces of black tape on the sign to study how it confused the machine mind. Yet this and several similar demonstrations are revealing something disturbing: AI can be hacked, and you don’t even need to break passwords to launch an attack. As the technology begins to find more and more applications that affect our lives, this is a threat we need to take seriously.

*****

The Boeing 737 - Max crashes might be due to new control software "fighting" human pilots to correct the "angle of attack", the angle at which the wings cut into the air flow. This angle dictates whether the plane is flying or falling through the air. In the new Boeing, the programming is obscure and invisible. The human pilots cannot switch it off to take back control. 

Imagine such automatic robotics losing control of a billion travelling vehicles. 

However much Boeing have spent on the flight computers - developed over many decades - humans are better pilots and better drivers and better decision makers - than programmers in Silicon Valley trying to predict and preordain mechanical reactions to every and any future events that might occur. The humans have lives to lose; the robots do not care whether they live or die. 

...The crash last year also involved a plane that went down minutes after takeoff and after the crew requested permission to return to the airport.
In that case, investigations by the Indonesian and American aviation authorities determined that the Lion Air plane’s abrupt nose dive might have been caused by updated Boeing software that was meant to prevent a stall but that can send the plane into a fatal descent if the altitude and angle information being fed into the computer system is incorrect.
The change in the flight control system, which can override manual motions in the Max model, was not explained to pilots, according to some pilots’ unions.
After that crash, Boeing said that it was continuing “to evaluate the need for software or other changes as we learn more from the ongoing investigation.” It was unclear if the company had made any changes.

ROBOT VEHICLES


“By the end of 2019, we expect over 100,000 Level 3 cars with Mobileye installed.” (Mobileye is an Intel subsidiary.)



20TH MARCH 2018 - Self-Driving Uber Car Kills Arizona Pedestrian - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html

16 hours ago - SAN FRANCISCO — A woman in Tempe, Ariz., died after being hit by a self-driving car operated by UBER, in what appears to be the first known death of a pedestrian struck by an autonomous vehicle on public roads. ... The UBER vehicle was in autonomous mode with a human safety driver. 

Millions of empty-vehicle journeys. 
100 times more dangerous than human-drivers.
5 times more expensive. Hackable by villains & kids.
BUT, an $80 trillion market. 

Read More: ROAD TRANSPORT SPACE


This might be the first robot-driver-caused death of a pedestrian - a woman pushing her bicycle - but it certainly will not be the last. Last year a TESLA owner was killed when his car, in self-drive mode, failed to recognize a huge truck across the road and tried and failed to drive under it; the cretinous driver was watching a video. The computer industry and gangs of government technophiles, some embedded in Transport Ministries, are utterly determined to convince us all, all humans, that we cannot drive safely unless we hand over control to the computer-industry. 

The investments being poured into this project are immense. The Public Relations budget to persuade us we cannot be trusted to drive vehicles - is equally huge. What's the prize for investors? There are 222 million drivers in America, all incompetent. There are 39 million UK drivers, all incompetent. There are 291 million drivers in Europe, all incompetent. That's already more than 550 million licensed drivers who, according to Silicon Valley, can't drive. Extrapolating to all the vehicles in use globally comes to more than 1 billion. If the technophiles have their way - ALL vehicles will have to be equipped with robot-drivers, which currently cost about $80,000 per vehicle. ...And they still crash into things and kill people. 

So, the global market is today worth $80 trillion - and with China and India and Africa using their new wealth to buy cars - the market is ever expanding. It is a cornucopia for the computer industry. All they have to do is convince us that we cannot drive. 

Or can we? For example, the 38 million UK vehicles annually drive 323.7 billion miles, an average of 7,800 miles each - without robot-drivers. There are 1,732 road deaths annually. Lets assume all road deaths are the fault of drivers (though half are of drunken pedestrians) - that's a kill rate of 0.004% and a safe-driving rate of 99.996%. Are computers that reliable?

100 TIMES MORE DANGEROUS THAN HUMANS
Globally 35 cities are testing no more than 10 "autonomous" cars each, say, 500 worldwide. There have been 2 deaths (0.4% - a hundred times more dangerous than humans), and more than 200 collisions (40%). And that is with hundreds of millions of dollars and teams of engineers trying to make them safe. My instinct to never, never, ever be driven by a laptop, is a case of justifiable paranoia. 

Trident Missiles - designed at the cost of billions of dollars by top scientist over the past 30 years - cannot yet be reliably steered. We recently fired one that wandered off over Miami. Oops ! My Microsoft office software still gets glitches, after 33 years of development. The Russians have recently hacked into all the control systems for the USA energy and infrastructure. Imagine what fun they will have with driverless vehicles. 

Electric cars - YES. Robot cars - NO. 


28th March 2018 - BUT GOOGLE/WAYMO THINK ROBO-CARS WILL BE IN USE BY 2020:  but, AGAIN...  "Earlier today, Governor Doug Ducey indefinitely barred Uber's robo-cars from testing in the state." 
THE SELF-DRIVING CAR industry is in the final miles of a grueling marathon to bring autonomous technology to market. Uber needs autonomous tech to offer ride-hailing services sans human drivers. GM bought Cruise and put autonomous Chevy Bolts on the roads of San Francisco in an effort to remain relevant when people stop buying private cars. If Tesla can cross the line first, it could disrupt the other guys and even offer its own ride-sharing service.
And ahead of them all is Waymo. After nearly a decade of R&D, the company that started life as Google's self-driving car project has shifted its focus from tech to operations—from development to deployment. The Alphabet subsidiary says it will launch its first commercial, driverless service later this year, in Arizona. It already has the permit. All of which makes it the irritatingly fresh-looking guy, in a dayglow tank-top, taking big bouncing strides at the front of the running pack.
Today, Waymo announced it’s partnering with Jaguar Land Rover to build autonomous versions of the $90,000 electric I-Pace SUV. “It’s going to be the world’s first premium, electric, fully self-driving car,” says John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo. That sounds like a claim Elon Musk would love to be able to make about Tesla.
Waymo plans to buy 20,000 of the vehicles over the next couple years, do extensive testing and validation, and then fully integration them into its passenger-carrying fleet by 2020. The company says the new cars will be able to offer a million trips per day. It’s a huge expansion for Waymo, which has around 600 vehicles on the roads now, and an existing partnership with Chrysler for “thousands” more minivans.
Waymo is launching its debut service in Arizona, thanks to relaxed legislation and good weather. But Uber's recent crash in Tempe—one of its cars killed a pedestrian pushing a bike across the street—raises questions about the ethics and wisdom of testing on public roads. Earlier today, Governor Doug Ducey indefinitely barred Uber's robo-cars from testing in the state.

Thursday, 15 March 2018

PROFESSOR STEPHEN HAWKING - WITH THE HEROES

PROFESSOR STEPHEN HAWKING  (Wikipedia)

 Stephen William Hawking CH CBE FRS FRSA was an English theoretical physicist, cosmologist, author and Director of Research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology within the University of Cambridge.  Wikipedia 


(Though a bumbling academic, who would at first glance be assumed by the right thinking Manchester business community where I was spawned, to be clueless about money - his books sold in the tens of millions and his broadcasts and lectures were packed. He was a self-made multi-millionaire - from a wheelchair.)
Born: 8 January 1942, Oxford
Died: 14 March 2018, Cambridge
Spouse: Elaine Mason (m. 1995–2006), Jane Hawking (m. 1965–1995)


Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.

The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.


I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road.


END

15 March 2018 - Professor Hawking is undoubtedly one of the most inspiring people who have decided to spend at least one lifetime on Planet Earth. He is, and will continue to be, ranked among the Heroes and The Greats as his life-force follows his life's work, and is broadcast and resounds for eons to come throughout the cosmos. His most notable achievement is that when medical science and all common-sense gave him "but a short time to live" to the age of 22, he laughed in the face of the unrelenting grim-reaper for another 54 years. We, humans, I believe, and Stephen is a case in point, choose the manner and the time of our departures. 

His example to all humans, and in particular to all with disabilities, to everyone who finds their personal problems overwhelming and might be tempted to end it all, echoes Winston Churchill's advice "KBO ! Keep Buggering On". Despite being paralyzed by Motor-Neurone Disease, unable to even speak, he persisted with his family life and his work and his demanding social and media life. He bore all the humiliations of being unable to tend to his own bodily functions - or breathe without mechanical aid. Stephen intelligently adapted and applied technology to allow himself to live. Science, intellect and utter determination overcame his almost, to many of us, unbearable fate as a completly disabled man. 

Years ago, at the Sheldonian Theater in Oxford, UK, a University Don put a question to The Dalai Lama who had spoken of reincarnation. "I have a friend who is very depressed..." the several hundred members of the academic audience all suppressed knowing smiles "...and he has several times said he would commit suicide. ...In the light of reincarnation - should he end this life and be reborn?" After a suitable pause, The Dalai Lama replied, cautiously, "Although my faith in reincarnation is total - I haven't met anyone who has actually claimed to recall having died and been reborn - with one-hundred percent certainty.  ...I would therefore suggest to your friend that he does not take that risk. He should perhaps let nature and life take its course." 


Stephen Hawking was a humanist. He expressed no belief in an afterlife. But just in case he was not one-hundred-percent correct about Life The Universe and Everything, his extra-special and extraordinary energy just might be recycled - leaving the Motor-Neurone Disease behind - via a Black Hole, emerging appropriately as Hawking Radiation - at which time his theory will have practically demonstrated his predicted phenomena, and he could collect his Nobel Prize. As he reassembles his organism from the stream of radiation, ready for another stint on Earth - he will also know the answer to the conundrum he posed "is information destroyed or preserved as it enters and eventually leaves a Black Hole". But it could take more than a Brief History of Time to recycle the brilliant and brave Professor Hawking. 

In the meantime, while we wait and see, his insights, science and mathematics will help to move Physics on from Newton and Einstein and The Standard Model. The current and coming generations of scientists will benefit from standing on the shoulders of all the giants who precede them. 

Saturday, 10 March 2018

BREXIT GETS WORSE & WORSE - OR HAS THE TIDE TURNED

"Let's bankrupt Britain"  ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE


9th July 2018 - Sadly - the LIB-DEM'S email isn't working. BREXITERS' Sabotage?  This is what I wrote in answer to their "Have your say. What should Parliament debate?" 

From: Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com> 
Sent: 09 July 2018 08:53
To: 'Layla Moran - Liberal Democrats' <internalcomms@libdems.org.uk>
Subject: RE: Have your say


My say hasn’t changed. Its been confirmed by the business community. Parliament should debate – STOP BREXIT.
  1. The LEAVE campaign was lies – the result was only “advisory”.
  2. The LEAVE campaign had £12M paid for by Russia – who want to break up the EU
  3. Farage is a creature of Trump who wants to break up the EU
  4. The complaints of Brexiters can be addressed via our powerful EU membership and veto
  5. The majority of MPs want to Remain.
  6. The latest public polls are 54% in favour of Remain.
  7. Any EXIT will cost the UK 7M jobs (8% of GDP) and lose Scotland and Ireland

Emails to internal.comms@libdems.org.uk are not monitored. If you wish to contact us, please email help@libdems.org.uk or phone us on 020 7022 0988, Monday to Friday 9am to 7pm. 

Your message did not reach some or all of the intended recipients.
       Subject: FW: Have your say  Sent:  09/07/2018 09:35  The following recipient(s) cannot be reached: 'mailto:help@libdems.org.uk' on 09/07/2018 09:35 Server error: '501 5.1.3 Invalid address [VI1PR07MB3375.eurprd07.prod.outlook.com]'

2nd July 2018 YOU GOV POLL : 57% of UNITE members want a meaningful vote in Parliament

















Poll of Unite union members piles pressure on Corbyn | Politics | The ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/.../unite-union-brexit-poll-corbyn-labour

2 days ago - The survey by YouGov, released before Unite's annual conference this ... The pressure on Corbyn and shadow Brexit secretary Kier Starmer ...

Unite members strongly support public vote on final Brexit deal, new ...

https://www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics

2 days ago - According to the poll by YouGov, commissioned by the People's Vote campaign, 57 per cent of members said they backed a public vote on ...



18 April 2018 - Guardian Newspaper
Global Future finds Theresa May’s preferred bespoke deal would cost £615m a week
Study by Professor Jonathan Portes TOO HIGH A PRICE? THE COST OF BREXIT – WHAT THE PUBLIC THINKS  POSTED ON 18TH APRIL 2018 IN FULL REPORT


****

Professor Portes calculates that Mrs May's bespoke option will cost £40 billion a year - every year. That is £1,600 per year, per household. The NO DEAL option on WTO rules will cost us £3,200 a year per household. £81 billion every year.  My assessment is that these overly optimistic calculations assume "business as usual" with the rest of the world and the EU. 

But, I think that BREXIT will trigger a domino effect leading to a partial paralysis and collapse of all our UK markets, partners and investors. This is already apparent as banks, car makers, major public companies and thousands of SMEs and individuals rush to the exits and set up HQ in the EU. And the best foreign workers are rapidly quitting the UK. How many VIPs do you know who have already applied for EU passports? 

BREXIT will isolate and bankrupt Britain. Businesses cannot spurn 50% of their nearest (wealthy) customers in Europe and hope that distant Commonwealth countries will compensate. I think our "Empire" and our "Special Relationships" will stand back, stop all trade and investment and wait to see what deal we have with the EU. If you are more optimistic, perhaps you should poll our Marketing Directors about the extra investment and time-frame to make up the lost ground. 

It is deeply unfortunate that Mrs May's sociopathic Home Office "hostile environment" to brutally eject 60,000 black and brown UK legal Commonwealth citizens who have lived here for 60+ years, has hit the headlines this week as the Commonwealth Leaders assemble in London. Mrs May invented the cruel policy when she was Home Secretary. What chance for "good trade deals" now? 

BREXIT, based on obvious lies, is driven by a handful - about 0.5% - of utterly selfish UK VIPs who are financially offshore (e.g. ALL UK media owners (Guardian excepted), 100 BBC "self-employed"  execs, hundreds of celebrities, ALL non-doms, most of the super-rich, many politicos, and many thousands of tax-haven SME business owners, as in the Panama Papers etc - aided by Cambridge Analytica and Russia). All are desperate to escape the EU legal net that is slowly and reluctantly closing down tax-evasion - pressed by The Tax Justice Network and by Eurodad.

The horror they share, of having to reveal their offshore assets and pay tax is driving BREXIT. The foul murder of Maltese reporter Daphne Caruana Galizia shows how utterly determined such evaders are to hide and keep their dirty-money secrets. America is gripped by the same disease - Trump brags "I'm smart. I don't pay tax." Nor will he give the UK a favourable deal. As long as these VIPs continue to fund and force BREXIT as "The Will of the People" - the UK is well and truly f*****. And we will lose Scotland and Ireland to become the Disunited Bankrupt Kingdom. STOP BREXIT NOW!


Daphne Caruana Galizia: Journalist who exposed corruption in Malta ...


https://www.independent.co.uk › News › Obituaries

20 Oct 2017 - Galizia's work on the explosive tax-evasion case prompted website Politico to call her a 'one-woman Wikileaks' Reuters. Daphne Caruana Galizia, who was killed by a car bomb this week, was a leading investigative journalist in Malta celebrated for her dedication to exposing corruption.


****

10th April 2018 - Thank you for the copy HM Gov. briefing economic forecasts of BREXIT. 

I have been waiting for these to include in my analysis. I am still waiting for the 57 Sector Analyses that were promised by David Davis to Parliament in November 2017. These will indicate which sectors of our businesses will thrive or die. These forecasts are very, very complicated, with too many variables to compute confidently and accurately – even with my 30 years’ experience. This is my stab at it, before I received the HM Gov. figures:
CONCLUSION - Brexit will cost 7 million UK jobs

However, In the government’s model, most professional forecasters (Page 17) agree that a no-deal or World-Trade-Organisation-Tariff deal (WTO) results in an 8% fall in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The World Bank calculates (Page 27) a 55% drop in our EU trade. An 8% drop in our annual £2.7 trillion GDP is disastrous. Losing 55% of EU trade will bankrupt the nation.

30-Jan-18
BREXIT lost Jobs
 £         2,700,000,000,000
 UK GDP
 £            216,000,000,000
8%
£                               31,000
 Average wage
6,967,742
So, jobs lost
Say 7 million jobs.
makes sense
******
The diverse news items my forecasts rely on are here:

THE ECONOMICS OF BREXIT


The economic news has got much worse since. The grim government forecasts look optimistic by comparison with today’s reality.

What BREXIT does, simply, is it cancels all our global export trade agreements since WW2, on 70,000 trade goods and financial & professional services. After the BREXIT date, we have to negotiate or reaffirm new terms on every export to every region on Earth. It is on these exports that recipient nations – under WTO rules – will probably charge tariffs as our goods and services cross their borders. WTO tariffs (Customs and excise taxes) range from 4% to 47%.

E.g. Trump has just announced an example of a tariff, of 25% on steel imported into the USA. We sell specialised steel items to America so our sales-export men and women will have to work very much harder to maintain sales. As a rule of thumb in commerce – we will lose sales equivalent to the increased tariff (i.e. 25% down). As a major player in the EU we have/had all such tariffs agreed (frictionless trade). The importing region keeps the tariffs-income and reduces foreign competition; it is win-win for them.

BREXITERS believe that we will make a deal with the EU that mirrors current terms. They also believe that we will hugely increase sales – even with WTO tariffs applied by the importing regions – to the emerging fast-growing economies, such as India, China, South America and Africa. The snag is that they are growing from deep impoverishment, with ballooning populations (many of whom would like to move to the prosperous West). My guess is that we already sell what we can to these nations – and sales growth will be hard won. Brexiters also believe that other OECD (Organisation for Economic Development) rich nations, such as Canada, will buy more of our goods. My guess is that ALL foreign importers will wait to see what deal we do with Europe before committing themselves to the UK. We do not grow our GDP at the fast rate of these poor nations – because we have already grown. We only increase a little year by year, from a very rich base.

The third major element is that we will have the FREEDOM to import goods including food, from around the world – and NOT apply any import tariffs; thus reducing our costs on imports. This could be a boon – depending on the quality of the imports. Sadly, due to Brexit, sterling has already slumped 20% and is forecast to fall another 10% in March 2019 when we quit Europe. So, the fall in sterling is an automatic tariff on everything we buy to import – which will total about 30%. Alternatively, the UK can cut imports and supply its own goods. Dig for Victory ! Jeremy Corbyn will publish an OU course on maximising your Citizen’s allotments.

We are embarked on this fatal, suicidal course because Nigel Farage and most media lobbied for it. The sensible thing to do is NOTHING. Make no changes. If it works don’t fix it. STOP BREXIT NOW.  If the EU needs reform, reform it from within.

I will attempt to include HM Government’s forecasts in my calculations. The end is nigh.