Friday, 11 July 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE - JULY 2014 - DEAR JOHN...



ARCTIC MELTDOWN - NOW OR LATER?

Hi John - I bravely survived the sun damage surgery; but with a little less skin. The surgeon sensibly recommended a stiff whisky to dull any pain. 

 (UPDATE - New Scientist 28 June 2014 article says: "Ice sheets on course for collapse."  Which will bring metres of sea-level rise. BUT when?)

To continue our discussion and your points below:

Mini ice age and Thames freezing? The middle-ages mini ice age is currently attributed to less sunspot activity which diverted the jet stream which brought in cold air from Siberia (the east). Global Warming (today increased by 0.5C) is predicted to bring more extreme weather events because weather is driven by air and ocean temperature. So, yes, a mini ice age could happen in the midst of global warming. My view is that as Greenland melts, the UK seas will be cooled - and our weather will get colder. The mini ice age sunspot cycle could repeat - but it won't solve /stop global warming.

Quick Frozen Mammoths? Found mostly in northern Russia and Alaska, are attributed by Immanuel Veliskovsky, by reference to Bible tales, to a near collision with Mars, caused by Venus settling into its present orbit. Great stuff - Read Laird Scranton - The Veliskovsky Heresies. More recent, less convincing, less fun but less mocked geophysical theories are that the Earth's tectonic plates slip, from time to time, shifting regions from temperate to Arctic zones; if so, slippage could happen again.

Computer Modelling? Compared to Climate Change Models, I have done very, very small pieces of computer modelling for accountancy and auto-tax calcs; and I agree with you and Armstrong that all computer models should be viewed with great scepticism. The Climate Change models are designed by the UK's Meteorological Office - and by NASA - and by many universities - run on the same super-computers that are used for weather forecasting. My experience is that over some years of constant updates, the models eventually start to be reliable. For example, James Hansen at NASA, worked with modellers to plan the several years long routes to Mars - putting satellites into Mars orbit - and the models worked. Weather forecasting is far more complex - it is done by making 1 km x 1 km x 1 km "boxes" and calculating all the inputs and outputs of data in a specific period in each box, then summing all the results. Time will tell if they are getting it right. But at least they are trying. 

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
MOVE YOUR MONEY ON-SHORE (they do know where we all live - and bank)

Best wishes - Noel

*****************
Noel

He has an AI model with 6000 years of data in it.

Best

John


http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/08/global-warming-fraud-to-raise-taxes/


***********




Noel

Probably what we always thought!

http://www.thegwpf.org/confessions-of-a-computer-modeler/
.


John











-------- Original Message --------
      



        


            Subject:
            
            Re: UN Global Warming Model DEAD Wrong for 18 Years! |
              Armstrong Economics
          



            Date: 
            Wed, 09 Jul 2014 12:45:28 +0100
          



            








John - I'm just leaving to have bits of sun damage
            carved off my skin - If I survive, I'll respond more fully. In the
                meantime here is my calculation of polar ice; which you can check:
        (NB buy my e-book at a risibly low price) - Adieu - Noel





OUT OF THE DEPTHS  by Noel Hodson -  Forward - (see E-book cover in the right hand margin)







The oceans
                have a surface area of 335 million square kilometres. Antarctica has an area of 13.8
                million square kilometres which is 98% covered in ice,
                with a depth of up to 5 kilometres. Greenland, in the Arctic, has an area of 2.2
                million square kilometres, with an ice cap of up to 2.6
                kilometres. Should both the Antarctic and Arctic land based ice caps melt,
                the sea-level would rise 113 metres, or 370 feet.  Eighty percent of
                all the people in the world live below 300 feet, on the
                coastal margins. Greater London is all below
                300 feet. Florida’s
                east coast urban areas are below 30 feet.  Manhattan
                  Island
                rises just 36 feet above the ocean. The infamous
                settlement of Monmouth Junction in New Jersey is
                built at 135 feet above sea-level.  The centre of Oxford, England
                is 200 feet above sea-level. SW2000 Telework
                  Studies 1994.



  



Noel







NASA & Scientific American calculated these Arctic regions as follows:































I
              sent you a link to an article written by a computer
              modeler.







What

              is the position on the amount of ice worlwide.







Do

              you know if an approaching mini-ice age (like when the
              Thames froze) would cause extreme weather?







Also,

              do you know of any research being done into whether there
              could be a mini-ice age coming. 







I
              think Armstrong's comment : 



"In

            the Mayan report, I explained the theory behind the ice age
            again was the discovery of frozen woolly mammoths. Suddenly,
            those discoveries shocked science even Issac Newton was
            moved in his theory confronted with the realization that the
            system was not linear but chaotic with sudden changes."



is

              very interesting, "not linear but chaotic."







Life

              is often non-linear!







I'll

              send you a link to another (short) article he wrote
              yesterday on models.







Keep

              eating the vegetables.







Best







John





***************





Hi John,



CLIMATE CHANGE



We enjoyed France and now back at our desks. Thanks for the
            Armstrong link re-climate change. I think he is incorrect. 



(1) MELTDOWN: The main practical test of global warming is
            whether the ice-caps are melting. All the surveys of the
            past 25 years show that the rate of Polar meltdown is
            increasing rapidly. e.g. A Canadian
              shipping company's profits have soared by using the
            North West Passage instead of the Panama Canal. MOVE TO
            HIGHER GROUND. 



(2) EXTREME WEATHER: It doesn't matter whether or not human
            activity (anthropogenic) is contributing; what matters is
            can we humans stop it (I am now convinced we cannot; due to
            the extra heat of about 0.5C already in the atmosphere and
            oceans) or can we at least slow the process (maybe - if a
            huge global effort is made). 



MODELS: 600 climate scientists,
            now even including sceptical Americans
              in their 2014 Report, forecast disruption to food
            supplies, transport and energy; and massive human migration
            - which our present civilisation may not survive. 



My Cli-Fi novels predict that despite higher average world
            temperatures, as Greenland melts-down the UK will experience
            extra icebergs and cold water flows that will bring spells
            of very cold weather. BUY A BIG COAT.



I hope you and I live long enough to see who is most
            correct. 



Noel











**************











On 08/07/2014 08:33, John wrote:






http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/07/computer-modeling-depends-upon-the-input-un-global-warming-model-dead-wrong-for-18-years/


 


 


John.



More Blog essays on Climate Change



















LONDON FLOODING 2014

BRITAIN FLOODS - CALIFORNIA DRYS

FLOATING HOMES IN HOLLAND.








  










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