16.1 million voted REMAIN – 48%. When we have lost our banks and key
industries, creating immense poverty, the LEAVERS will change their votes – but
it will be too late.
Noel
********
This is an EXCEL chart of the UK constituencies –
but it shows what the 650 MPs would
vote in Parliament - not the referendum result:
CONSTITUENCY
MPs
EU STANCE |
|
156
|
LEAVE - 24%
|
485
|
REMAIN - 75%
|
9
|
NOT
DECLARED - 1%
|
650
|
|
Sent: 23 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Better off out
Noel
You refer to the disaffected mob and unemployed
shipbuilders.
Do please look at the actual result.
Every area of the UK voted to leave except for London,
Scotland and Northern Ireland.
You saw the letter I sent you recently.
The people who Tony-H met in France and Germany are educated
intelligent people and they want to leave too, they are envious of us. Ask
yourself why if it is all as hunky dory as you think.
Answer : there is more going on than your analysis
encompasses. Why do these people envy our position? Find the answer to that and
maybe your eyes will be opened.
Best
My view of the 30,000 bureaucrats (employed /unelected like all public
servants) in Brussels etc., is that they try to make all the trans-border
factors work peacefully across 550M people and 28 countries. Most important is
food – hence the Common Agricultural Policy, Wine Lakes and Grain Mountains.
Then there are Transport, Telecoms, Health, Money, Police/ Security, Energy,
Air Pollution, Education Basics, Space, Science, etc. Their job is to action
the will of the elected MEPs. Including our scrappy lot from the UK. 30,000 is
about the same size as Stockport Council employees – it is not overblown. Most of
each Member’s contributions (an agreed fraction of the VAT we collect) is, by
tortuous agreement, fed back to the donor – across that donor’s regions. A part
of the money is diverted to the poorest Members, like Greece, to ensure we are
surrounded by prosperity and have strong borders. The bureaucrats make
mistakes. But we have been central to it all and have had a loud voice in all
the decisions. Mistakes can be and must be reviewed – constantly. But in 47
years of maze-like complexity it has worked well – and will continue to work
well.
There is no sensible reason to want to see the organisation break-up; as
the world heads towards World Government (for the same trans-border issues
reasons, globally). The red-tops hysterical “straight bananas” and
“throwing-back-fish” and “Euro going bust” stories are utter nonsense promoted
by “Elvis Presley alive on Mars” journalists; and by vested interests, as
always, trying to escape rules and regulations and make another (tax-free)
quick buck. My hopeful forecast is that these forces will fail and the EU will
continue to prosper. It is we in the UK who will suffer as we ditch 60 years of
hundreds of carefully crafted agreements – and cast ourselves out into the cold
Atlantic. All major nations will give preference to the 500M Common Market. We
are already globally being side-lined as irrelevant. We will be quickly
dismantled with The City going abroad (it is only blips in computers) and all
our main manufacturers relocating their HQs and factories.
It is a terrible mistake to embrace Brexit – whatever the unemployed
shipbuilders in Hartlepool may think. Farage has convinced the disaffected mob
that all their woes are caused by the EU. Trump is doing the same in the USA,
blaming Washington. That is utter nonsense. They are of our own making and we
could fix them. But not if we are going to focus our top resources for the next
20 years on re-negotiating hundreds of trade agreements , instead of getting on
with our own productivity. The UK is not restricted by the EU in doing business
globally. After 20 years of decline and re-negotiations, we will end up just as
were in May 2016 – same red-tape, same trade barriers, same trading partners,
and a disunited kingdom – but we will be a bankrupt, bent-banana, lonely,
drowning island.
That is my forecast - unless we rapidly grow-up.
Noel
********
From: John
Sent: 22 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out
Noel
You have ignored what Tony's contacts said about how
clever we were to be getting out before the EU disintegrates.
If you were right it would be difficult but it won't work
out like you say.
All EU Brussels people are positioning themselves on the
hard line because they are terrified other countries want to leave. When the
negotiations are actually done the self interest of each of the other 27
countries will be foremost and their exporting companies will be lobbying them
hard for an agreement whereby they can continue to export to the UK.
This is survival for the UK rather than being consumed in
the fires of the failing EU.
Best
John
*******
On 22 Oct 2016, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com>
wrote:
John
I’m all for constantly reviewing our contracts with
Europe and all nations. One of the Telegraph letters cites 52 nations that have
trade agreements with the EU. What is ignored is that the agreements took 20
years to negotiate. In business terms it is a gross waste of time, effort and
direction to dump all the past 50 years of UK deals – and re-do them. If it
works don’t fix it. In the meantime, the world thinks we have blown it and
Sterling is devalued. A famous restaurant reports that its salmon
purchases have just “doubled” in price – terrible for upper-crust diners. Most
supermarkets are predicting 10% price increases. The EU is saying “no soft
Brexit …so sod off”. It will be chaotic for 10 to 20 years. Most investment
decisions will be postponed. Britain will freeze and decline. We don’t have to
do this.
Noel
**********
From: John
Sent: 21 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out
Noel
It's observation of what's happening rather than personal
opinion.
Doesn't Tony H's email say it all. First hand accounts of the
attitudes of intelligent well educated people in several EU countries. They
think it's doomed.
Also, we are not walking away from our customers. We are
leaving a political framework but trade will continue with European countries
just as lots of other countries have access to EU markets.
It is simply not correct to say we are walking away from a
section of our overseas market when what we are doing is leaving the EU political
construct. Trade will continue.
On the concept that the EU has prevented wars there is also
the view that it is NATO that has done this not the EU.
Further, the EU is causing civil unrest with its treatment
of Southern European countries and policies on migrants. Expect this to
escalate.
Best
John
*********
On 19 Oct 2016, at 13:39, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com>
wrote:
Thanks Tony H, John and Tony-L for your texts. I interpret
them as encouraging a break-up of the EU. Why? It has brought peace to Europe
for 60 years – which is its primary purpose. I have long advocated reduction of
the UK population – but this could be done by our clever, highly-paid diplomats
within the EU – just as we have negotiated other special deals. Better that
than walking away from 47% (500M) of our best customers. PS – I’m not given to
economic-exaggeration. Devaluation reports fluctuate between 16% and 19%. With
other direct costs some economists calculate 20% losses = $1.2 trillion =
$50,000 per household (about). The costs will increase annually. The poorest
will bear most of these costs.
Contrary to The Telegraph’s views, here is a Tweet
I sent this morning:
“ Brexiteers who say devaluation is good for the
UK. Send me 17% of your savings and I'll agree with you” http://noelhodson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-britain-sterling-sink.html
Noel
*********
From Tony-L
Sent: 19 October 2016 12:58
Subject: Better off out
John,
most people to whom I speak on the matter favour Hungary or Greece. However, I
understand from friends living and working in Amsterdam for a few years now
that the Dutch are very unhappy with the EU. I think an EU banking collapse
will precipitate a major change first.
Tony-L.
*******
Tony-L
Most
interesting, from your conversations which will be the next country to vote to
leave the EU?
Best
John
*******
Sent: 19 October 2016 11:53
Subject: Re: 2nd Referendum
Noel
I'm sorry but I really can't agree with you..at all! I was
in France and Italy last week and am now in Germany... I am often having
conversations with different people in these countries and they all
basically think we're very clever to get out before the whole nonsense of the
EU goes for a ball of chalk..which it most certainly will! Yes short term grief
I agree and it's not pleasant paying 10-15% (don't exaggerate it's not 20%)
more for everything ...although a cup of coffee here is still far cheaper than
in UK.. roughly 1.20 € for a single expresso.. A couple of weeks ago on my
way back from Heathrow I called in at the motorway services on M40 near Thame
and against my better judgement allowed the person I was with to go to the stand
alone brand spanking new Costa Coffee...even you couldn't begin to guess what
they wanted for a single expresso ... £3.50!! I just couldn't believe it ..I
gave them a piece of my mind and stomped out of the place!
Last night I was at a drinks party just S of Munich and I was talking with an eminent doctor and a couple of
his very bright female assistants and they all think Merkel is nuts and tell me
that probably 90% of Germans would be glad to see the back of her in next March
elections - but as yet no one else of presidential quality has come
forward.
I was also taking to a very wealth American woman who lives
in Dallas ..she is pro Trump... A point she made as indeed did my wife that if
a woman is being "groped" the power lies with her. If she's offended
then bash the bloke hard round the head or indeed knee him in the balls!
The last debate between The Donald and Hilary is tonight
..may the best man win!
Get over it! We're out of Europe .. allow the picture to
unfold .. we are strong and very much admired in Europe apart from by the
complete idiots who run the so called European Parliament... load of second
rate bureaucrats!
Chill!
Best wishes for an exciting future!
Tony H
*******
On 18 Oct 2016,
Dear John & Tony
As
the UK walks away and deliberately insults 47% of its best customers, Doing a
Ratner; as Sterling plummets making us 20% poorer; and as Theresa May,
Trump-Hugging-Fake-Tan-Farage, and their demented cronies try to force or sneak
through Brexit, based on The Will of The Halfwits who believed the
Leavers-Lies; and against the votes of 16.1 million intelligent UK Remainers –
against Scotland, N. Ireland and London – in the chaotic turmoil created by
this government, you might not have signed this Petition for a 2nd
Referendum. Sign it now:
PS – And please circulate it.
Noel Hodson
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