Brexit will cost 7 million UK jobs or equivalent in lower wages
The politics of Brexit are trivial and can be changed in a few weeks. Compare them with the immense, long-term consequences for business and jobs. The UK could lose the equivalent of 3 million to 7 million jobs in the 12 months following Brexit - from March 2019 to March 2020. That is £175 billion a year - every year.
Taking the better-than-expected world growth since then, the economy is up to 2 percent worse off than officials could have expected, the governor said. That’s a 900-pound difference when translated into household incomes, “which is a lot of money.”
9th OCTOBER 2018 - BLOOMBERG ANALYSIS:
9 Oct 2018 - Send this to your MPs and colleagues.
22 May 2018 : British households are about £900 pounds ($1,212) worse off than they would have been without Brexit, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said.
9 Oct 2018 - Send this to your MPs and colleagues.
BLOOMBERG say the cost so far of the threat of BREXIT is 700,000
jobs already lost. The reality of any form of BREXIT will cost the UK 6% of GDP or 2.1
million jobs of £50,000 each. Apply the average wage of £25,000 and the total
jobs lost rises to 4.2 million. HM Treasury calculations are a
loss of 8% of GDP (gross domestic product, everything we produce & services
in a year) which is 7 million jobs.
Our car factories are closing down. The City is migrating to
Europe and the US. Scotland & N. Ireland will break-away. We are risking
50% of our export customers – in the EU, the largest, richest market ever.
Because Farage, Trump, Putin and Rees-Mogg insist that our 63 million citizens
must leave the EU.
THIS IS MAD. WE DON’T HAVE TO DO THIS. WE DO NOT HAVE TO COMMIT
ECONOMIC SUICIDE. STOP BREXIT TODAY!
"As Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union enter
their crunch moment, let’s be clear on one thing: The EU doesn’t need to punish
Britain for leaving; the referendum did that just fine.
Latest figures show the warnings of
economic self-harm Brexiters like Boris Johnson derided as Project
Fear are fast becoming real, while the promises of a Brexit
dividend are still too remote even to assess.
Most studies seek to calculate the
economic impact of the various degrees of Brexit. The U.K. Treasury puts
the damage at as much as 6 percent of GDP. Bloomberg Economics analyst Dan
Hanson estimates that the level of U.K. GDP could drop between 3.2 percent and
6.7 percent by 2030, depending on the option chosen.
Such
estimates are controversial. We don’t know the shape of the Brexit deal,
including what arrangements will be put in place to keep trade flowing.
And Brexiters complain such exercises tend to use assumptions that favor
negative results.
Yet it is possible to make some unbiased judgments about the costs
of the vote itself to date. Doing so is useful as those unhappy with the
prospects of a compromise Brexit deal advocate more extreme alternatives, such
as leaving without one.
In November 2017, four
academics affiliated with the Center for Economic and Policy
Research — led by German associate professor Benjamin Born — modeled how
the U.K. economy would have grown had the referendum gone the other way. Their
approach was to create a synthetic U.K. economy using the attributes of 30 OECD
countries, including the U.S. and Canada, whose GDP between 1995 and 2016
most matched that of Britain.
This
month, they increased their estimate of the cost of Brexit to 2 percent
of GDP, or about 35 billion pounds ($46 billion), from 1.3
percent. The researchers’ new output cost is 350 million pounds a
week, the exact amount the Leave campaign claimed Brexit would save for use in
the National Health Service.
Other attempts to measure the costs of
the referendum all produce losses. An FT average of several
models back in June arrived at a Brexit cost of around 1.2
percent of GDP by the end of the first quarter of 2018."
22 May 2018 : British households are about £900 pounds ($1,212) worse off than they would have been without Brexit, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said.
Speaking to lawmakers on the Treasury Committee Tuesday, Carney said that compared to the bank’s forecasts made in May 2016 -- which were based on the U.K. voting to stay in the European Union -- economic output is more than 1 percent below where officials had expected. That “was predicated on a relatively weak European and global economy,” Carney said, an assumption that has also not panned out in recent years.
STOP PRESS - 7TH MARCH 2018: UK car industry stops investing until Brexit terms are known.
Vauxhall chief warns of Brexit threat to Ellesmere Port
The UK vehicle industry, employing 155,000 people, is threatened with import and export tariffs which have stopped investment into the next models, including electric-vehicles. This Tory-Brexit government has already promised to pay any tariffs on Toyota and Nissan vehicles made in Britain, but cannot afford to pay all the tariffs that will result from a No-Deal, Hard-Brexit. WTO rules, which are the UK's fall-back position, impose 9.8% tariffs. Such imposts will shut down UK vehicle manufacturing. We export vehicles worth £15 billion per annum to the EU.
On the same day, the EU tells Britain that The City, employing 415,000 people, cannot have Passporting rights to EU markets. Financial and professional services sold to the EU are £81 billion a year (2.7 million jobs); including £23 billion of banking and insurance. We will lose our industry and our banks. They will migrate to Europe - taking the jobs with them.
How will this happen?
On the same day, the EU tells Britain that The City, employing 415,000 people, cannot have Passporting rights to EU markets. Financial and professional services sold to the EU are £81 billion a year (2.7 million jobs); including £23 billion of banking and insurance. We will lose our industry and our banks. They will migrate to Europe - taking the jobs with them.
How will this happen?
1) 20% collapse in sterling has happened, on the Referendum vote. In March 2019, sterling will fall again, by an estimated 10% = 30%. The UK has an import/export deficit of £100 billion, so the direct cost is 30% of £100 billion = £30 billion or 1.2 million jobs every year into the future - unless we can cure the trade deficit.
2) Europe cannot give us a favourable deal, without betraying the other 27 Members (500 million people). A good, special deal for the UK, would break-up the European Union; they cannot allow that. The logic is that WTO Tariffs will apply on our exports, which range from 5% to 47% (47% on food). e.g. Vehicles and parts are taxed at 9.8%. WTO rules are governed by the DSB, Dispute Settlement Body, essentially a Swiss court. So much for UK sovereignty and taking back control.
As a leading Member of the EU since 1948, via and with the EU the UK has settled terms for all our exports. Applying new tariffs will cause initial chaos worldwide, and reduce UK exports by approximately the amount of the tariff. The average tariff will be 10% - of the £400 billion annual exports (ask UK Sales Directors how sales will fall) - costing £40 billion or 1.6 million jobs - every year.
No UK politicians claim to have read the World Trade Organisations WTO rules. No Brexiters speak of the legal structure/s that will govern UK trade after Brexit. No politicians comprehend the complexities of unravelling sixty years of European cooperation between the UK and the EU on 70,000 products and services.
No major trading blocs will do trade deals with the UK until the UK-EU trade relationships are known and are confirmed in global and EU law. All blocs will circumvent the UK to deal direct with the EU. The UK will be sidelined. The costs of this isolation are incalculable. It will take decades before the UK's position is known.
3) Much of the UK's Inward Investment such as from Nissan, is because the UK is a gateway to the EU market. This will reduce to near zero. Inward and Outward investment flows change daily and are difficult to quantify. 120,000 UK jobs are estimated to rely on net-inward-investment.
4) UK Government assessments for adopting WTO rules (Jan 2018) indicate an average 8% reduction in UK Gross Domestic Product GDP - being all the goods and services the UK produces in a year. The UK GDP is about £2.7 trillion; 8% is £216 billion or more than 7 million jobs. Subtract the 3 million job losses accounted for in 1) 2) and 3) above and this item 4) means the loss of 4 million more jobs.
Scotland and N. Ireland voted REMAIN. They will not cling to a sinking ship. The UK will break-up and lose Scotland and Ireland. This will have a large cost. We will lose most of the City of London's financial business.
WHY ARE THEY DOING IT?
5) Tax-evasion drives the main Brexiters. They want to escape ever-increasing EU tax laws limiting tax-havens.
6) The USA wants to break up the EU, which is the largest trading bloc ever created - 500 million compared to the US 350 million people; so that American trade-laws will apply globally.
7) Russia wants to break up the EU, simply to divide and rule. The Far-East see opportunities to pick the UK's economic carcass clean.
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