MARCH 2020: CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
"Killing the global economy will cost many more lives than hysterical measures to curb Coronavirus. 19 March 2020." NCH
UPDATE 31 MARCH 2020
Time Magazine
The coronavirus has collided with a troubling economic trend. Even before the pandemic, a majority of Americans—59%, according to a 2019 Charles Schwab survey—were living paycheck to paycheck, barely able to keep up. The ability to prepare for an unplanned loss of income was out of the question. Which is why this crisis has hit so many people so hard. Businesses are closing their doors indefinitely, no one knows what’s next, and everyone’s just trying to keep the bills paid and their family fed and healthy as circumstances outside of their control shape the structure of their lives. The result will be economic dislocation for tens of millions of people.
How many days can families survive without income and food, before they turn to crime to feed their children? The medics have to find an alternative to economic shutdown.
UPDATE 25th March 2020 - Saviours of the Human Race?
A WARRINGTON, UK lab is claiming it can test for coronavirus in as quick as 15 minutes with a four-step home kit. ... AlphaBiolabs, based in Westbrook, says a '
UPDATE 24th March 2020
UPDATE 23 March 2020 - FREE MARKETS.
GLOBAL - Latest 4 pm 17th Mar 2020
Infected 190k - Deaths 7.5k (3.8%) - Cured 80k
World percent infections (190k / 7,200,000k) = 0.0026%
It is very silly to panic and shutdown the global economy.
Who is making these decisions?
The stalled economy will kill many more than Covid-19 will.
"Killing the global economy will cost many more lives than hysterical measures to curb Coronavirus. 19 March 2020." NCH
UPDATE 31 MARCH 2020
Time Magazine
The coronavirus has collided with a troubling economic trend. Even before the pandemic, a majority of Americans—59%, according to a 2019 Charles Schwab survey—were living paycheck to paycheck, barely able to keep up. The ability to prepare for an unplanned loss of income was out of the question. Which is why this crisis has hit so many people so hard. Businesses are closing their doors indefinitely, no one knows what’s next, and everyone’s just trying to keep the bills paid and their family fed and healthy as circumstances outside of their control shape the structure of their lives. The result will be economic dislocation for tens of millions of people.
How many days can families survive without income and food, before they turn to crime to feed their children? The medics have to find an alternative to economic shutdown.
UPDATE 25th March 2020 - Saviours of the Human Race?
A WARRINGTON, UK lab is claiming it can test for coronavirus in as quick as 15 minutes with a four-step home kit. ... AlphaBiolabs, based in Westbrook, says a '
AlphaBiolabs claim to have offices in Manchester, Preston, Liverpool, London, Leeds and other cities in England. Website says ALL Covid-19 test-kits are pledged to HM Government "At cost price". AlphaBiolabs Ltd - 14 Webster Court Carina Park Warrington Cheshire WA5 8WD
The above Warrington-Guardian article does give a price for their Covid Tests - of £125.
At the same Warrington address are:
Alpha Biolaboratories Ltd 09987941 - NIL assets; £2 of Share Capital. Directors David Thomas - Sarah Davenport
Also:
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES ANALYTICAL LTD - 09807843 - SAME address & directors. £200,000 of assets. £100 share capital.
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES CORPORATE LIMITED 09414132 - Inc on 30 January 2015, £58K assets
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES LEGAL LIMITED 08269816 - Inc 26 Oct 2012 £55K Assets
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES RETAIL LIMITED 07936081 - Inc 3 Feb 2012 £18K Asset
Alpha Biolaboratories Ltd 09987941 - NIL assets; £2 of Share Capital. Directors David Thomas - Sarah Davenport
Also:
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES ANALYTICAL LTD - 09807843 - SAME address & directors. £200,000 of assets. £100 share capital.
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES CORPORATE LIMITED 09414132 - Inc on 30 January 2015, £58K assets
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES LEGAL LIMITED 08269816 - Inc 26 Oct 2012 £55K Assets
ALPHA BIOLABORATORIES RETAIL LIMITED 07936081 - Inc 3 Feb 2012 £18K Asset
UPDATE 24th March 2020
Total
|
338307
|
14602
|
232378
|
|
Region
|
Places
reporting cases
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Confirmed cases in the last 15 days
|
At the bottom of the page is a table detailing all countries
as at 23rd March 2020.
My Calculation: World Population 7.53 billion 7,530,000,000.
Deaths to date 14,602 is 0.00019 % or 1.9 deaths per million. Say, 2 deaths per
million people.
Global 23 Mar 20
|
||||
7,530,000,000
|
Population 7.5B
|
percent of pop.
|
Rounded
|
|
14,602
|
deaths
|
0.00019%
|
2
persons per million
|
|
338,307
|
cases
|
0.0045%
|
45
people per million
|
While
each fatality is personally tragic;
I
do not think these numbers of deaths warrant shutting the global economy, which
is costing $ trillions.
The
cure is worse than the disease. Give the Health Services as many billions as
they need and re-open for business. Noel Hodson
Noel
Hodson - Director
Tax
Reconciliations, Oxford UK,
Tel +44 1865 (0)760994 Mobile 07713 681216
UPDATE 23 March 2020 - FREE MARKETS.
Los Angeles Times: This is a well-balanced attempt to make
sense of the statistics.
I (not a medic) believe that the global "cure" is for each
person to gain immunity and build anti-bodies. Social-Distancing helps by
rationing the numbers being hospitalised.
As my shares (my vital pension) are now below 50% of the
January values: I strongly advocate short-sellers being
hung-drawn-and-quartered at Traitors Gate**. I've argued for 20
years that Stock and Commodity Exchanges should not be gambling casinos - they
should be reliable investment channels. Best achieved by a global law requiring
a 3 months gap between buying and selling ; And delivery of the commodities to
the gambler's home - or vice-versa for short-sellers.
** (Short-Sellers; choose a stock or commodity they think will fall in value, and make a contract to SELL, even though they have none of it. When or if the stock falls, they BUY it at a lower price. So, simply: Sell first, BUY later. The gamble goes wrong if the price increases. The gambler HAS to buy to complete the contract - at a higher price than the prior sale. Such transactions make sense in market-smoothing of commodities - e.g. for, say, farmers waiting for crops to grow, who need the sales cash to harvest and then deliver the crops.)
Have you tried to sell a house this month?
As Covid-19 is seen to be waning, the rush to buy back
into real assets, as we all crowd into pubs, clubs and theatres - and re-start
manufacturing - will be a tsunami. "Buy now to avoid disappointment."
• Nils Pratley observes that, as a result of measures to suppress the pandemic, a global recession is now almost certain (Chancellor’s £330bn package is big – but not big enough given the size of the threat, 18 March). We now know that austerity kills. What will be the cost in terms of human life of the economic downturn? Spending constraints on health and social care since 2010 are linked to an estimated 152,141 additional deaths, according to research published in BMJ Open. Will mortality from the self-inflicted economic downturn exceed the Covid-19 deaths averted?
Dr John Doherty
Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire
Dr John Doherty
Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire
• Health experts are correct in predicting that lives will be saved from death by coronavirus if social interaction is reduced, and that the greater the reduction, the more lives saved (Scientific modelling: Italy’s hospital data changed everything, 17 March). It is comparatively easy to calculate lives lost due to a virus; it will take longer to calculate the effects of a worldwide economic recession caused by the shutdown – the lives lost due to unemployment, despair, homelessness, famine, suicide, neglected non-virus illness, etc. I predict that a future analysis will show that more lives will be lost as a consequence of the current modelling than will be saved; and that it will have disproportionately targeted the health and wellbeing of the poorest and most vulnerable.
Robert Silman
Former senior lecturer, Barts and the Royal London hospitals
Robert Silman
Former senior lecturer, Barts and the Royal London hospitals
18MAR20 - My non-medical opinion is that if “they” (the
medical profession) persist in stopping the entire economic machine to
“save-lives” from Covid-19, they will cause many more deaths than they save.
People suddenly without income, unable to buy food, pay rent, fill up the car
etc. etc. – will despair and kill themselves – or over time will simply die of
stress. There are already millions facing redundancy or business liquidation.
In the UK these draconian measures are triggered by
less than 100 Covid-19 UK deaths. Insane or what?
“Those whom the gods wish to
destroy they first make mad.” Euripides.
The most extreme global odds on dying from this
virus are 7 to 1,000,000 against. Unless “they” are not telling it all. - Noel
Noel HODSON
GLOBAL - Latest 4 pm 17th Mar 2020
Infected 190k - Deaths 7.5k (3.8%) - Cured 80k
World percent infections (190k / 7,200,000k) = 0.0026%
It is very silly to panic and shutdown the global economy.
Who is making these decisions?
The stalled economy will kill many more than Covid-19 will.
Most OECD countries or regions are advising people to travel as little as possible; to wash our hands; and where possible to work from home. We were among the pioneers from 1986 to 2000 who made Telework or Telecommuting possible and commonplace. We wrote the book on it - and wrote many papers that explained all the practical problems and solutions - from advice to Trade Unions to equipping a home office, to avoiding divorce - and to getting the maximum tax-relief on the costs.
If you are now planning to start or expand homeworking by wire, using advanced telecoms to get your work done; if you need advice to navigate the red-tape and maximise benefits - contact for Europe, Noel Hodson, noel@noelhodson.com. or for America contact, Gil Gordon, gil@gilgordon.com.
We have advised some of the largest global employers, incl IBM, World Bank, BT, WHO, EU - and dozens of new-start SME's - and saved them thousands of dollars.
EUROPE - NOEL HODSON email to noel@noelhodson.com
http://www.noelhodson.com/SW2000/Take-the-Plunge-NH-CV.pdf
SW2000 Telework-advice and projects for large
employers include:
BT
Sales, Chiswick; BT Marketing; BT Martlesham Laboratories; BT Services,
Bristol; Fujitsu – London; Nat-West Bank, London; Lombard Bank, UK; World Bank,
Washington DC; Prudential Insurance; Royal Insurance; Walls-Birds-Eye; HM
Customs and Excise, London; Highways Agency, London; Post Office Accounts, UK
Midlands; Yorkshire Water; Central Electricity Generating Board, Birmingham UK;
Surrey County Council, UK; Grampian Region, Scotland (Aberdeen City); Hewlett
Packard, Brussels; Burgher King; Laura Ashley; GUS Catalogues; Southern
Electricity; WH Smith; and others.
SME’s - Small Firms
We
have advised many small employers and we have ourselves established two small
teleworked virtual companies from start-up, the first from 1983-87 being Morton
Hodson & Co Limited which we built to 60 people in 38 home-locations across
the UK; the second being Experts UK Limited, currently being established out of
an EC project Experts Unlimited, that will telework professional advisers such
as tax-experts, legal-experts, health-experts etc. We established a project
team of teleworkers and when the company has new capital, we will advise on
rolling out across the UK and the EU with hundreds of teleworkers based at
local offices and at home. In addition to these two examples we have advised
more than fifty SME’s to act as virtual organisations.
Reports, Publications and Presentations
Telework
Publications & Interviews:-
Economics
of Telework, 1992, BT Labs.Martlesham
Teleworking
Explained, with BT, 1993 Wiley & Sons, Chichester & New York
Telework
& Employment, 1995 for EC, DGV, Expert Group on Employment
Jobs
Work and Employment, Information Society Guidelines, 1996, EC GATChain
Telework
Tax Guidelines, 1996 for DIPLOMAT, ACTS, EC
Teleworking,
1996, Institute of Directors UK
Taxing
Internet and Telework, 1997, Tax Faculty, Institute of Chartered Accountants
UK
Traffic Decongestion 2007 & 2017 from IT and Flexible Work Methods, 1997,
UK anon.
The
Future of Telework and the Information Society – Chapter for a Bank Dresdner
book 1998.
Articles
in Telecommuting Review (New Jersey, USA)
Articles
in the European Journal of Teleworking, EU
Articles
in Home Run magazine, UK
Telework
Promotions:-
Teleworking
Today - Video for Major Customers, BT 1995
Telework
Training Video for managers, BT 1997
Swiss
TV Telework Programme, Arbeisort Internet, 1996
Interviews
for numerous UK radio stations, newspapers and for The Times Magazine
Noel
Hodson has delivered papers in several European countries, including Austria,
and in the USA.
Director
of ITAC (USA) from January 2000 and Treasurer in 2001.
PERSONAL INDIVIDUAL COSTS & BENEFITS CALCULATOR.
http://www.noelhodson.com/index_files/twrk_indv.xls
SW2000 Teleworking Studies was founded in 1988. It
conducted Flexible Working seminars from 1988-992 attended by over 120 HRM and
Personnel directors from major UK employers. SW2000 was retained to survey UK
employers and telework in 1992 and conducted telework statistical surveys in
1990 and 1991. It published Working Environment News in 1990 and was retained
by BT to assist major customers to calculate the Costs and Benefits of
Teleworking from 1992-1995. SW2000 led the EC supported project Experts
Unlimited which initiated higher telephone tariffs in the UK, now used by over
500 professional advice services. SW2000 co-authored and was Fiscal Issues
partner in the EC, DGXIII, ACTS project DIPLOMAT. SW2000 published "Bringing Home the Electronic Baby" 1995, Pauline Hodson, (available
via a WEB search). SW2000 specialises in promoting, advising on and creating products
for telework and flexible work in the Information Society.
(March 2000) The Author, Noel Hodson , has 30 years accountancy experience, was an employer and entrepreneur, specialising in long term tax-planning. He has advised more than 5,000 SME's and has been a telework consultant to British Telecom and the European Commission for ten years. He wrote the Economics of Teleworking (BT Labs 1992) and Teleworking Explained (Wiley & Sons 1993) and is known for his seminal work on the Costs & Benefits & Ecological Impact of telework. His WEB Site is Http://www.NoelHodson.com . He is a director of ITAC the International Telework Association and Council in Washington DC . He makes forecasts about the transformations that the Information Society will bring:
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