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| UK BREXITS. EUROPE ISOLATED |
27th Feb 2019
UK government has revised its calculations of the damage Brexit will do to the UK economy, increasing it to 9% of GDP (it was 8%). UK GDP (gross domestic product - all the work we do which adds value to the economy) is £1.73 trillion per year, multiply by 9% = £156 billion per year. Convert to average jobs at £20,000 wages per year = 7.8 million UK lost jobs - or equivalent reduction in wages. Well done ERG and Mrs May and Mr Corbyn - putting us well on our way to national bankruptcy. That will show those Brussels Bureaucrats that we Britons are not afraid of hardship. Bring it on! We survived the Blitz - and paid-off the USA War Loans.
Fervent Brexiters say it will happen "over 15 years". But that's idiot-speak. A NO-DEAL - forcing us onto WTO Tariffs - will immediately reduce our sales by the same percentages as the tariffs increase prices. Well informed, high IQ Leavers know, having studied the consequences, that some food prices will rise by 48% and that vehicles, cars and parts by 9.8%. Those are WTO rules. These increases hit on the day we quit - 29th March 2019.
29 NOV 2018
Faulty
Brexit arithmetic - Costs over 10 years are £2.1 trillion.
Following
three days of BBC and Guardian news on Brexit economic forecasts, it seems the
Treasury and The Chancellor are saying we will be wealthier keeping our current
membership, Remain, than taking any Leave option. WTO/No Deal terms reduce us
by 8% of GDP (7M lost jobs). Mrs May said in parliament today that this is not
true; no doubt to the delight of Farage, Trump, Putin and the ERG mob. The
forecasts appear to be based on reductions in growth-rate for the next 15
years, while adding-back 0.2% GDP growth from new trade deals with our long
departed UK colonies. This is a spectacular Kicking-the-Can-down-the-Road
equation; left open to more Leave spin and obfuscation e.g. “we will be a
little less rich than we would have been”.
“Let
Us Be Quite Clear” Mrs May, the hit to the UK economy is immediate. It is
happening now. The full cost 2018-28 will be £2.1 trillion. Sterling is already
20% down (629,000 jobs) and will fall another 10% in March 2019. The City is
decamping to Europe with calamitous and immense consequences. Our vehicle
makers are pulling out. Bombardier Belfast has lost the European Airbus
contracts, costing 500 jobs. Calculating the higher WTO tariffs
industry-by-industry, reducing our export sales, I got to 3.5M actual, real job
losses half-way through my work, before pausing on the promise of 58 Sectorial
Analyses from the government (never published). This fully supports the
Treasury’s 8% of GDP, or 7 million lost jobs. 7 million job losses will bankrupt
us. All major OECD players will by-pass us and go direct to Europe. N. Ireland
and Scotland will leave the United Kingdom.
For
heaven’s sake, STOP BREXIT. It is economic and social suicide.
Noel
Hodson - 28 NOV 2018
Noel Hodson - Director
Tax Reconciliations, Oxford
UK,
Tel +44 1865
(0)760994 Mobile 07713 681216
8% OF £1.73 TRILLION, BEING THE UK's GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = £138 BILLION/ AVERAGE WAGE £20,000 = 6.9 MILLION, SAY 7 MILLION, UK JOBS
*Average wage £20K includes Zero Hours and Low Paid "self-employed" earnings.
Thursday, 15 February 2018 COSTS OF BREXIT - 9 OCT 2018 - BLOOMBERG
Brexit will cost 7 million UK jobs or
equivalent in lower wages
Doing the arithmetic: Treasury says each person will lose
£1,100 x 63 million lost souls = £69,300,000,000 (£69.3B) per annum. If the UK
can recover from Brexit in say, 10 years, that’s £690B – or to round it out,
about £1 trillion cost before we get new trade deals. Thank heaven that Donald
J Trump is riding to the rescue to bail us out.
I sent this calculation yesterday to a bunch of Brexiters
– mostly Manchester business-men. Over 10 years it comes to twice the cost - £2.2 Trillion:
“I
agree, as you say, that our choices are either QUIT now and forever hold they
peace, or STOP.
I
take Tony’s rebuke of wasting time on Brexit – but Tony did re-ignite debate
this morning with his Petition to Leave the EU.
BREXIT
is an immense, self-destructive waste of time and money. Sterling is 20% down
already, with no ground-floor. UK property and shares will founder. We also
lose The City’s passporting rights.
HM
Treasury calculates the WTO no-deal as costing 8% of GDP. That is 7 million
jobs – or equivalent wages – year after year. The UK might recover after 10
years of new global efforts on marketing - and of haggling over trade deals
covering 70,000 trade items. (£30k x 7m = £210,000,000,000) £210 billion x 10
years is £2.1 trillion lost (as much as the UK lost in the 2008 bankers’
crash).
As
the QC’s legal opinion that David Hill attached says, we don’t have to do this
to ourselves.
The
EU say they will welcome us back.”
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