ANY BREXIT WILL COST 7.8 MILLION UK JOBS

UK BREXITS.   EUROPE ISOLATED

27th Feb 2019

UK government has revised its calculations of  the damage Brexit will do to the UK economy, increasing it to 9% of GDP (it was 8%). UK GDP (gross domestic product - all the work we do which adds value to the economy) is £1.73 trillion per year, multiply by 9% = £156 billion per year.  Convert to average  jobs at £20,000 wages per year = 7.8 million UK lost jobs - or equivalent reduction in wages. Well done ERG and Mrs May and Mr Corbyn - putting us well on our way to national bankruptcy. That will show those Brussels Bureaucrats that we Britons are not afraid of hardship. Bring it on! We survived the Blitz - and paid-off the USA War Loans. 

Fervent Brexiters say it will happen "over 15 years". But that's idiot-speak. A NO-DEAL - forcing us onto WTO Tariffs - will immediately reduce our sales by the same percentages as the tariffs increase prices. Well informed, high IQ Leavers know, having studied the consequences, that some food prices will rise by 48% and that vehicles, cars and parts by 9.8%. Those are WTO rules. These increases hit on the day we quit - 29th March 2019. 

29 NOV 2018

Faulty Brexit arithmetic - Costs over 10 years are £2.1 trillion.

Following three days of BBC and Guardian news on Brexit economic forecasts, it seems the Treasury and The Chancellor are saying we will be wealthier keeping our current membership, Remain, than taking any Leave option. WTO/No Deal terms reduce us by 8% of GDP (7M lost jobs). Mrs May said in parliament today that this is not true; no doubt to the delight of Farage, Trump, Putin and the ERG mob. The forecasts appear to be based on reductions in growth-rate for the next 15 years, while adding-back 0.2% GDP growth from new trade deals with our long departed UK colonies. This is a spectacular Kicking-the-Can-down-the-Road equation; left open to more Leave spin and obfuscation  e.g. “we will be a little less rich than we would have been”.

BREXIT LIES & CRAP FROM BORIS, NIGEL & JACOB R MOGG.

“Let Us Be Quite Clear” Mrs May, the hit to the UK economy is immediate. It is happening now. The full cost 2018-28 will be £2.1 trillion. Sterling is already 20% down (629,000 jobs) and will fall another 10% in March 2019. The City is decamping to Europe with calamitous and immense consequences. Our vehicle makers are pulling out. Bombardier Belfast has lost the European Airbus contracts, costing 500 jobs. Calculating the higher WTO tariffs industry-by-industry, reducing our export sales, I got to 3.5M actual, real job losses half-way through my work, before pausing on the promise of 58 Sectorial Analyses from the government (never published). This fully supports the Treasury’s 8% of GDP, or 7 million lost jobs. 7 million job losses will bankrupt us. All major OECD players will by-pass us and go direct to Europe. N. Ireland and Scotland will leave the United Kingdom.

For heaven’s sake, STOP BREXIT. It is economic and social suicide.

Noel Hodson - 28 NOV 2018

Noel Hodson - Director

Tax Reconciliations, Oxford UK,

From Tax-Havens to Safe Havens

Tel +44 1865 (0)760994 Mobile 07713 681216

8% OF £1.73 TRILLION, BEING THE UK's GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = £138 BILLION/ AVERAGE WAGE £20,000  = 6.9 MILLION, SAY 7 MILLION, UK JOBS

*Average wage £20K includes Zero Hours and Low Paid "self-employed" earnings.

Thursday, 15 February 2018  COSTS OF BREXIT - 9 OCT 2018 - BLOOMBERG

Brexit will cost 7 million UK jobs or equivalent in lower wages

Doing the arithmetic: Treasury says each person will lose £1,100 x 63 million lost souls = £69,300,000,000 (£69.3B) per annum. If the UK can recover from Brexit in say, 10 years, that’s £690B – or to round it out, about £1 trillion cost before we get new trade deals. Thank heaven that Donald J Trump is riding to the rescue to bail us out.

I sent this calculation yesterday to a bunch of Brexiters – mostly Manchester business-men. Over 10 years it comes to twice the cost - £2.2 Trillion:

“I agree, as you say, that our choices are either QUIT now and forever hold they peace, or STOP.

I take Tony’s rebuke of wasting time on Brexit – but Tony did re-ignite debate this morning with his Petition to Leave the EU.

BREXIT is an immense, self-destructive waste of time and money. Sterling is 20% down already, with no ground-floor. UK property and shares will founder. We also lose The City’s passporting rights.

HM Treasury calculates the WTO no-deal as costing 8% of GDP. That is 7 million jobs – or equivalent wages – year after year. The UK might recover after 10 years of new global efforts on marketing - and of haggling over trade deals covering 70,000 trade items. (£30k x 7m = £210,000,000,000) £210 billion x 10 years is £2.1 trillion lost (as much as the UK lost in the 2008 bankers’ crash).

As the QC’s legal opinion that David Hill attached says, we don’t have to do this to ourselves.

The EU say they will welcome us back.”

  

Noel Hodson - 


Read More

Saturday, 10 March 2018

BREXIT GETS WORSE & WORSE - OR HAS THE TIDE TURNED?