BREXIT - REJOIN WTO - SCRAP THE PARTIES

Jan 2019 - John Bercow, Speaker of The House
defending the rights of MPs against Ministers

29th Jan 2019 - USA freezes:

Chicago citizens are rugged with pioneer spirit. This is true tough-love real Capitalism at work. Most, all but the losers, will survive the cold – just as the British will survive after Brexit. We survived the Blitz; why should we fear EU imposed food, medicines and power shortages***; and lorry queues at Dover? Mrs May promises that Donald Trump will sign the biggest and best ever trade deal with the UK, like his support for Venezuela, and make us rich beyond his wildest dreams. – Or, should we retain our current privileged position with the EU? Must we all Brexit! “When in doubt – Do nowt”

*** 16 Mar 2018 - In 2016, the UK imported 534 TWh of natural gas from Europe, 59% of total supply. It is estimated that 35% of Europe's gas comes from Russia.

1.     U.S. 

2.    CHICAGO  TIME MaGAZINE

'I Thought I Was Going to Die.' How Chicago's 80,000 Homeless People Are Surviving in Deadly Zero-Degree (-18C) Weather

Noel HODSON - Author

28 Jan 18 - MOVING TO WTO RULES COULD TAKE 7 YEARS, EU LAW EXPERTS WARN.

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.

The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.

It has been claimed that the UK could simply move to WTO terms if there is no deal with the EU. But Anneli Howard, a specialist in EU and competition law at Monckton Chambers and a member of the bar’s Brexit working group, believes this isn’t true.

“No deal means leaving with nothing,” she said. “The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 years: even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades.”

The government’s own statistics have estimated that under the worst case no-deal scenario, GDP would be 10.7% lower than if the UK stays in the EU, in 15 years.

There are two apparently insurmountable hurdles to the UK trading on current WTO tariffs in the event of Britain crashing out in March, said Howard.

Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining Parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. A number of states have already raised objections to the UK’s draft schedule: 20 over goods and three over services.

To make it more complicated, there are no “default terms” Britain can crash out on, Howard said, while at the same time, the UK has been blocked by WTO members from simply relying on the EU’s “schedule” – its existing tariffs and tariff-free trade quotas.

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25 Jan 18 - Mueller is digging into Trump’s suspicious actions and Russian collusion that swung the presidential result. Mueller is making arrests at a high level. These might result in impeachment – overturning the election. Equally, the Brexit Campaign result is just as questionable. It was obviously based on lies and gross data interference. Brexit should be shelved while a high level investigation is conducted. Ploughing on to “get it over the line” will bankrupt the UK. Who is our Mr Mueller? I will subscribe to help with costs.

BREXIT - REJOIN WTO - SCRAP THE PARTIES

ANY BREXIT WILL COST 7 MILLION UK JOBS

SHOCK - HORROR. WHAT A MESS: We are not independent members of the WTO. Only via the EU do we have membership rights and duties. And it takes months to apply and join  independent from the EU. All the blustering and posturing about leaving "Without A Deal, On WTO Terms" is utter nonsense. 

DOH! If we quit the EU we will have NO trading terms. We start over globally with no deals at all. What will it take? Another 45 years? Will the ERG, David Davis, Farage, Number 10 and the rest of the Brexiters please explain themselves. 

ARE WE MEMBERS OF THE WTO ? CHECK HERE.

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(Join the WTO: The talks can be highly complicated. It has been said that in some cases the negotiations are almost as large as an entire round of multilateral trade negotiations.)

https://www.wto.org/

We are members, via the EU. Ooops! Which lapses on 29^th March – so we’ll have to apply, and abide by the WTO Court rules. We applied for independent (independent from the EU) membership on 3rd Dec 2018. It can take years to win membership. 

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org6_e.htm

How to join the WTO: the accession process:

Any state or customs territory having full autonomy in the conduct of its trade policies may join (“accede to”) the WTO, but WTO members must agree on the terms. Broadly speaking the application goes through four stages:

First, “tell us about yourself”. The government applying for membership has to describe all aspects of its trade and economic policies that have a bearing on WTO agreements. This is submitted to the WTO in a memorandum which is examined by the working party dealing with the country’s application. These working parties are open to all WTO members.

Second, “work out with us individually what you have to offer”. When the working party has made sufficient progress on principles and policies, parallel bilateral talks begin between the prospective new member and individual countries. They are bilateral because different countries have different trading interests. These talks cover tariff rates and specific market access commitments, and other policies in goods and services. The new member’s commitments are to apply equally to all WTO members under normal non-discrimination rules, even though they are negotiated bilaterally. In other words, the talks determine the benefits (in the form of export opportunities and guarantees) other WTO members can expect when the new member joins. (The talks can be highly complicated. It has been said that in some cases the negotiations are almost as large as an entire round of multilateral trade negotiations.)

Third, “let’s draft membership terms”. Once the working party has completed its examination of the applicant’s trade regime, and the parallel bilateral market access negotiations are complete, the working party finalizes the terms of accession. These appear in a report, a draft membership treaty (“protocol of accession”) and lists (“schedules”) of the member-to-be’s commitments.

Finally, “the decision”. The final package, consisting of the report, protocol and lists of commitments, is presented to the WTO General Council or the Ministerial Conference. If a two-thirds majority of WTO members vote in favour, the applicant is free to sign the protocol and to accede to the organization. In many cases, the country’s own parliament or legislature has to ratify the agreement before membership is complete.

3rd DEC 2018

United Kingdom and the WTO

This page gathers information on the United Kingdom's participation in the WTO. 

The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and  a member 

of GATT since 1 January 1948. It is a member State of the European Union (more info). 

All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU (until 30 November 2009 

known officially in the WTO as the European Communities for legal reasons)

in its own right.

United Kingdom submits draft post-Brexit 

services commitments to WTO

WTO members received today, 3 December 2018, the United Kingdom’s draft schedule 

outlining its WTO commitments for services once the UK leaves the European Union. 

Members now have 45 days to review the schedule before certification.

CAN UK REJOIN THE WTO?  

Assuming that you are referring here to the case of Britain,  there are several points to raise. The first is that Britain was, is and will remain a member of the WTO. The second thing to keep in mind is that the process of Britain’s independent integration into a series of WTO commitments will depend to a certain extent on the terms of its exit from the European Union.

All Members of the WTO must have a schedule of commitments related to the terms of market access for their trading partners. In the case of Britain, the country does not have an independent schedule but as part of the European Union, it has abided by the terms of the common EU schedule. After Brexit the British  will need to have an independent schedule.

What they have formally proposed is to mirror the existing EU schedule with respect to market access for goods and services. This has been rather well received and it seems unlikely that there will be much difficulty on these points with other WTO members.

What may be more difficult is determining how Britain and the EU share existing tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for imports of agricultural products. Britain and the EU have proposed a system of sharing these quotas which have to date not been acceptable to several key WTO members so negotiations will be required here.

There will also be negotiations required for Britain to join the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA). Again the British are proposing the same terms as they shared as an EU Member state. It’s difficult to say how the negotiations on TRQs and GPA may progress. There is a great deal of good will towards Britain among WTO Members, but keep in mind that WTO delegates are trade negotiators. They may seek additional access beyond what is on offer. This is normal and there is no reason to believe that trade between Britain and non-EU WTO members will face any serious disruption. 

What happens with the 27 EU members, all of whom are WTO Members, will depend on the bilateral negotiations between London and Brussels.

3RD DEC 2019 

United Kingdom submits draft post-Brexit services commitments to WTO

WTO members received today, 3 December 2018, the United Kingdom’s draft schedule

outlining its WTO commitments for services once the UK leaves the European Union.

Members now have 45 days to review the schedule before certification.

 ********

1.45 pm 18 Jan 2015.  Trade Minister Liam Fox just reported that he has NO new deals on the cards with ANY non-EU countries – and that the nearly-done deal to continue normal trade with Switzerland has stalled. Japan’s Ambassador to Britain said Japanese investment here is investment into Europe via the UK. He implied diplomatically that the car factories will close.

Calamitous!

Where are the post-Brexit deals?

18 Jan 2019, London, UK -

Brexit Bullshit, or Profound Profitable Wisdom? 

John,

As world trade increases exponentially – e.g. as China, India, Africa and S. America mature, all existing other OECD countries' share of world trade reduces. Its basic arithmetic. It does not mean that Europe and the USA are doing less. The global cake is getting bigger. The EU is in good shape as the largest and richest market in the world.

However – in our exchanges 2015-2019, you, or any Quitters, have never identified any possible new trade deals outside the EU. Will the Falkland Islands sign an exclusive deal with us? You’ve only got 68 days to produce your list of great new business for the UK. In the meantime we are losing billions as the world desserts us to our lonely impoverished fate. Scotland, Ireland and probably Wales will go over to the EU. 

How do we replace 7M lost jobs? Where’s the new business? Why is The City (and all UK based Japanese companies) relocating to Europe? 

What are the real motives of our VIP Brexiters? What are their private purposes? Can you and will you answer these basic questions? Please tell me of just ONE new deal. 

Noel

 Noel HODSON 

********

From: John
Subject: Re: Better off out

Maybe you are the one peddling bullshit and maybe Ruth Lea DOES know what she is talking about.

Look at the chart that shows the EU share of world trade in decline.

Your idea of job losses is conjecture, no more.

John 

---

From: Noel HODSON
Subject: RE: Better off out

Lovely. Warm relationships. New dawns. Utopia beckons.

Where's the new business to replace 7 million lost jobs?
Tell me of one, single new customer outside the EU. Signed up or potential.

It is all flim-flam Brexit bullshit. So what is the real motive of VIP Brexiters? To escape tax? To advance Putin and Trump's attacks to sabotage the EU? To short sterling and make a killing?

Noel

-----Original Message-----
From: John

WE ARE BETTER OFF OUT

*******
15 Jan 2019 - London - UK.

"Voting is undemocratic" insist dictatorial committed Leavers.

At 8 pm Greenwich Mean Time (London time) tonight, the 650 MPs in Parliament will vote on Mrs May's 550 page "Brexit Deal" (EU exit agreement) which she has agreed with the European Union. This is NOT the new trade deal that might come into force if the UK does quit the European Union. The trade deal will be hundreds of pages, covering 70,000 products and services, which will start to be negotiated when or if the UK follows through on the July 2016 referendum, when 16.8 million voted Remain and 17.4 million voted Leave. 

Polls show that those figures have now reversed, because it is clear that the UK will suffer immense losses if it commits to "The Stupidest Economic Decision Any Nation Has Made - Ever (Michael Bloomberg). Remain is now the majority. 70% of the UK's elected MPs, the ones who can read, write and add-up, want the nation to Remain in the prosperous free market of 550 million Europeans. 

But - Mrs May's rapidly resigning Ministers, The Government, being a couple of dozen weak willed, deeply stupid career politicians each paid about £150,000 a year, insist that the July 2016 result is final. It is written  in stone. It is irreversible. Their mantra is "The Will of The People Must be Respected". 

I leave it to ordinarily intelligent readers to extrapolate what it would mean if all our past laws could never be changed - Wars with Germany - Witchcraft - Burning Heretics - Votes for Women - Abortion - Children Miners - Slavery - etc. Mrs May has done everything she can do to prevent the 650 MPs having any say, any opinions, any impact, any votes on Brexit. She wants Brexit - and to hell with our hard won, 700 years old, Representative Democracy. 

But the MPs are turning the tide. Tonight they can vote to delay and eventually to stop the Brexit process. It is a bitter battle (for the reasons set out below) which could and should result in Parliament taking back control and exercising its mandate for Sovereignty on behalf of the people. This is a momentous night for informed democracy. 

Leavers threaten violence if another vote is allowed. Hitler took power that way. 

Watch this space. Or the BBC News. 

********

Letter to the Guardian Newspaper, 

UK 11 Jan 2019

BREXIT - FREE VOTES FOR MPs. SCRAP THE DYSFUNCTIONAL PARTY SYSTEM

The Guardian 11 Jan 2019 reports “Labour must back a people’s vote before the clock runs out” and “No deal would cut GDP by 8% says CBI”. Any form of Brexit after 50 years of being a main-player in the EU will take 8% off our GDP, equivalent to losing 7 million jobs. These immense losses are happening now, as The City and major industries transfer HQs to the EU. Another referendum will bring more chaos - 99% of us voters cannot evaluate the complexities of the EU. We pay 650 MPs, political experts, our local representatives, £75,000 p.a. each to anticipate and manage such issues. The old Party gang system, run by a handful of bullying ministers and whips, has failed. The remedy is not A Very Uninformed People’s Vote; it is a free vote by our newly empowered MPs, permanently scrapping the cartels. As a Remainer, now in the majority, who do I vote for? May, a Leaver? Corbyn, a Leaver? Lib-Dems, 8 MPs? Greens, 1 MP?  I can vote Leave or vote Leave. The Party system does not function. It is time for a major change with each MP taking personal, informed responsibility. We have a few weeks before 29^th March, when globally the UK will be diminished, side-lined, bankrupt, and thereafter ignored.

Noel Hodson

Letters Editor – Do the Maths. I have 50 years accounting, forecasting and business experience.   8% OF £1.73 TRILLION, BEING THE UK's GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = £138 BILLION/ AVERAGE WAGE £20,000  = 6.9 MILLION, SAY 7 MILLION, UK JOBS  *Average wage £20K includes Zero Hours and Low Paid "self-employed" earnings.

ANY BREXIT WILL COST 7 MILLION UK JOBS

Noel HODSON - Author

Sci-Fi & Socio-Economics

16 Brookside, OXFORD OX3 7PJ, UK

Tel 01865 760994 Cell 07713 681216

BOTH SIDES OF THE ARGUMENT - CONFUSED BREXIT MORONS, OR CUNNING TAX-EVADERS?

John sent this link from Brexiters, cheering for Fararge, Putin and Trump to destroy the EU as the UK heroically commits economic suicide:   https://brexitcentral.com/

Dear John

Gosh – Remainers talking with each other – and civil servants calculating the impact of Brexit. This must be a Deep State Conspiracy, don’t you think? Factually – the WTO tariffs will bugger up our exports and raise the costs of our imports – and conflicts will be governed by the WTO Court in Geneva. So much for British Sovereignty.

All independent commentators agree that Brexit will ruin the UK. So what are the real motives of our VIP Brexiters? Almost certainly they are trying to escape the escalating EU legal crackdown on tax-havens which harbour £2.3 trillion of UK assets. They’re attempting to impose the Singapore Model.

WTO rules will create tariffs on our EU trade IN and OUT which are currently tariff free. A 10% tariff on cars & parts we send to the EU will immediately reduce our sales by 10% - say Sales & Marketing Directors. 

The WTO rules are that IF the UK opts for Zero Tariffs, it must apply them globally. If we break the Rules, we go to the WTO court for probably years – and while that happens, trade is disrupted. 

This would cause trading chaos – because tariffs, duties, fees exist and have existed for centuries for good reasons – e.g. to stop dumping, poisoning etc. Disputes about WTO rules are settled in their Swiss Court. 

The reason that “No-Deal” assumes “WTO rules” is that we do trade on them already with some, not all, non-EU countries. IF we don’t go to WTO then each and every item (70,000 products) will have to be re-negotiated with every country (164 countries?) which will paralyze trade and take decades. 

All these tariffs have been agreed since 1945, now incorporated in EU deals with the world. Quitting the EU nullifies them all for the UK. That’s the panic from industry and the City. It is real – Bad Business – not Project Fear. We cut off all trade rules and start afresh. Utter madness. We don’t have to do this. The alleged benefits of Brexit are emotional, idiotic, woad-painted bullshit. They are non-existent.

Noel

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ANY BREXIT WILL COST 7 MILLION UK JOBS

BREXIT GETS WORSE & WORSE - OR HAS THE TIDE TURNED?